By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
Moderate longshot (12-1), Summer Bird won the 2009 Belmont Stakes in a very similar fashion to how his father, Birdstone, won it in 2004- coming from out of nowhere on the outside and with happy feet. I'll show both races below and what you'll think for each of them is the same. As they come down the stretch you'll think, "Ok, I don't see him yet. It really looks like the horse on the lead is gonna win. Ok, still looks like the leader is gonna win this r....oh wait, who the hell is that on the outside? Well the leader still has a pretty big. Oh wow. He's still coming from the outside? Who the hell is that horse? Oh wow, the leader looks tired and this closer on the outside has some serious happy feet. Oh jeez, he's gonna win by a few lengths. There he goes..."
The 2004 Belmont won by Birdstone
The 2009 Belmont won by Summer Bird
Saturday, June 6, 2009
2009 Belmont Stakes: Like Father, Like Son
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Bad News for Fellow Saratoga Race Course Junkies
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
Of all the awesome old dudes in the last 15 years Harvey Pack is on Mount Olympus, ruling benevolently along with Harry Caray, Burgess Meredith's character from Grumpy Old Men, John Wooden, Bill Russell, Buck O'neil, George Carlin, all the WWII veterans/commenters from Band of Brothers, and Art Donovan.
(I hijacked this article from here.)
NEW YORK, NY, April 2, 2009 -- Daily Racing Form today announced that Harvey Pack is retiring as the longtime host of DRF’s popular daily Saratoga handicapping seminars, which is ending its 17-year run at Siro’s restaurant, and that DRF has entered into a strategic partnership with the New York Racing Association to sponsor and provide analysts for an expanded and reformatted “Talking Horses” for the Saratoga race meet.
“Talking Horses, Presented by Daily Racing Form” will be conducted in a live audience format in 2009. The popular longstanding daily television show will be extended to 45 minutes, 11:45 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. every racing day and broadcast live in the Carousel Restaurant facing the grandstand backyard. Scratches and changes have been moved to 11:40 am to allow the live program to be broadcast uninterrupted on all on-track monitors.
The new 3-person format will include a NYRA host (Eric Donovan or Jason Blewitt), NYRA co-host Andy Serling and a Daily Racing Form guest daily. DRF guests will include Steve Crist, Dave Grening, Dan Illman, Dave Litfin, Mike Watchmaker, and others.
“The Daily Racing Form’s handicapping seminars at Siro’s have been one of the great traditions of the Saratoga race meet,” NYRA President and CEO Charles Hayward said. “It won’t be the same without the legendary Harvey Pack, but we are thrilled with the opportunity to bring the DRF seminars on track and to combine our respective resources of talent and broadcast capabilities.”
The 82-year-old Pack, who resides in New York City with his wife Joy, cited family considerations for his decision not to return to Saratoga Springs for the annual six-week summer race meet. He had hosted the DRF seminars since 1999, reviving a tradition he began as the longtime host of “The Paddock Club” at the track and the “Thoroughbred Action” television show. If his family situation allows, Harvey is considering a cameo appearance as “Talking Horses” host early in August.
“The DRF seminars at Siro’s was a great gig,” said Pack. “The audiences responded to every joke and were all fans for many years. I want to thank everyone involved for a great ten years. I leave you with Little Andy (Serling), my last and best gift to racing.”
“We were saddened when Harvey told us that he could no longer come to Saratoga for the meet,” said Crist, DRF’s publisher. “We briefly considered alternative hosts but quickly concluded that no one could ever adequately replace Harvey. While it’s the end of an era for those of us involved with the DRF seminars, we’re excited about our new partnership with NYRA and hope to preserve the spirit of the seminars.”
“Talking Horses, Presented by Daily Racing Form” will be open to the public. Fans that are not on-track will be able to watch and listen to the show live on www.nyra.com and www.drf.com/saratoga.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Daily Racing Form's Dan Illman Agrees With Me About Zenyatta
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
After Zenyatta's stunning win in this weekends Milady Handicap, Dan Illman of DailyRacingForm.com echoed my sentiments about her superiority over the freakisly talented media darling, Rachel Alexandra.
***
With all due respect to "Superstar" Billy Graham, it is Zenyatta that is "the reflection of perfection, the number one selection." The Amazon, the freak, the scourge of the distaff division, Zenyatta is Beauty and The Beast rolled up into one divine package. Despite a wonderful ride from Garrett Gomez aboard the talented Life Is Sweet, Zenyatta wouldn't be denied. Again. Gomez dared Mike Smith to move Zenyatta through a narrow opening on the inside entering the final turn of the Milady Handicap at Hollywood Park on Saturday, and when Smith took the bait, Gomez almost put him over the rail. Undaunted, Zenyatta calmly began to build up momentum, and despite losing ground when wide turning for home, she steamrolled her opposition with the devastating ease that we've come to expect from the champion. Rachel Alexandra may have thrown down the gauntlet by beating males in the Preakness, but she isn't the mare to beat until she tackles Zenyatta.
***
Agreed.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Zenyatta Still Aint Nothin' to Eff With
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
Zenyatta does it again. Watch her the whole time, she tries for about a quarter of a mile in this mile and a sixteenth race. If Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra go head to head (presumably in the Breeder's Cup, but most likely not before), I think that would be the best day of my life. This ride is one of those rare things of beauty that does not involve me shirtless.
Rick Reilly certainly has never heard of this horse. Was that the impetus of my recent article against him? Yes. Not only is Reilly unaware of the Breeder's Cup, it is obvious he has never see this horse race. Nor has he seen Zenyatta effortlessly put to bed her foes in the classiest female race in the world like I have. That race? This one. The 2008 Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic.
Look impressive? It's cuz she is. I Loooooove Rachel Alexandra as much as the rest of America. But The throne she aspires to is currently occupied by Zenyatta. Don't believe me? What if the EIC of the Daily Racing Form ran a comparison of the best current female in training against the best mare (older female) of all time? Would it be Rachel Alexandra? Click here to find out.
Zenyatta is nothing to be fucked with.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
This What Results When Uninformed Writers Act Informed
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
This is a great example, courtesy of ESPN's wind-bag-in-residence, Rick Reilly.
Let's take it from the top.
Problem 1: The title is, "The Greatest Horse in the World Will get to Stretch her legs in the Preakness"
The Problem: No one thinks she is the greatest horse in the world. She may not even be the best female horse in America. Zenyatta, who is 9-for-9 and blew the doors off the competition in last year's Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic, the most prestigious female race in North America, is still in training. Rick either decided to irrationally leave her out, or has no idea she exists. I'll go with the latter- and that's just the females. No one has ever alleged she could or would beat the likes of Einstein or Commentator, or even fellow three year-olds I Want Revenge or Quality Road, for that matter.
Problem 2: Sentence #1 starts with "If you love to see a strong female take on the boys, if you think fillies should be given every chance to compete with studs..."
The Problem: The word "studs". Studs mean horses that have sired children. Horses in training (i.e. still racing) are forbidden from being sires. She will never race against a stud in her life, nor will any other horse. Studs do not race.
Problem 3: The third paragraph is one (erroneous) sentence long: "In fact, she's the fastest racehorse in the world"
The Problem: That is not a fact at all. Reilly may have been tempted to anoint her as such because he saw her visually stunning Kentucky Oaks victory which resulted in a Beyer Speed figure of 108. However, fellow three-year old I Want Revenge ran a 113 in the Gotham Stakes on March 7th. In the Florida Derby on March 28th, Dunkirk ran a 108 and Quality Road ran a 111. And those are just other three-year olds.
Furthermore, "fastest" implies she is a sprinter, which she is not.
That assertion is akin to saying that the man who runs the fastest mile is the fatest man in the world. That's cool, I'll take Usain Bolt. As much as I enjoy Rachel Alexandra, she would be no match in a sprint versus horses like Fabulous Strike, Kodiak Kowboy or Commentator.
Problem 4: First sentence, 9th paragraph, "That left Rachel Alexandra to race in the biggest fillies race in America—the Kentucky Oaks—the day before the Derby."
The Problem: The Kentucky Oaks, though a very prestigious race for fillies is certainly not the biggest monetarily or in terms of prestige. With the Oaks's purse of $500k, the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga is bigger at $600k. But that's not the only one. In 2008, the purse for the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies was $2 million, four times larger than that of the KY Oaks.
Problem 5: The ninth-to-last paragraph where Rick implies that fillies are more likely to die in races versus boys.
The Problem: He ignored two well-documented racing facts. One is that, for whatever reason, match races, like the one that ended Ruffian's life-as Reilly mentions, are historically much more likely to cause a horse to break down. And, two, Eight Belles did not die because she raced against boys, she died due to multiple breeding links to notoriously feeble-boned sire Native Dancer, a breeding pattern that herself up for that fall.
And do you know where I learned #2? From an article on Reilly's own ESPN.com. It was written by an actual horse racing journalist, Bill Nack- who was portrayed in a prominent role in the ESPN movie about Ruffian. So it appears that Rick Rielly saw the movie about Ruffian, then decided to throw in a reference to her in an attempt to seem familiar with the history of horse racing. It's too bad he didn't consult his ESPN.com colleague who could have informed him of his feeble writing about horses.
Ordinarily, I am excited to see any mainstream media outlet cover horse racing- the more exposure for this ailing sport, the better. I even give passes to authors when they are extremely topical and don't offer any incite into racing, just the publicity alone is enough for me. Despite Reilly's feeble allusion to past legend Ruffian, and his gavel-pounding declaration about Rachel Alexandra's current global domination of all things equine, it's obvious that he knows very little about the sport and this column was woefully under-researched.
Good topic, dreadful column, Rick Reilly.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Some Horse Racing Odds and Ends
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
Calvin Borel will NOT ride Mine That Bird in the Preakness. Since superfilly Rachel Alexandra declared she'll be in the Preakness, Borel opted to ride her. After riding her to a 20-length blowout in the Kentucky Oaks the day before the KY Derby, Borel said that she is the best horse he has ever ridden. No one can blame Borel for that. Rachel Alexandra is likely to one of the best horses, male or female, in history and seems to have several more high-stakes wins ahead of her, and at this point, the same cannot be said of Mine That Bird. It wouldn't be shocking for Borel to regain any (non-conflicting with Rachel Alexandra) future mounts on Mine That Bird. We'll have to wait and see.
A full-brother to Curlin was born on April 29th. So be on the lookout for him in the Derby in three years.
Steve Haskin wrote his follow-up to the Derby. Labeling this article a "must-read" would be a misnomer, but it's ok.
This Gave me Some Derby Closure
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
Horse racing Yoda, Andrew Beyer wrote this great article explaining how the unlikely Derby result was the product of a perfect storm. I plagarized it below. I took it from here.
Don't look for Mine That Bird to win the Preakness, however. Rachel Alexandra's connections just announced that she will run in the Preakness Stakes. The boys are in a LOT of trouble. Anyway, the Beyer article is below.
Many factors led to eye-popping win
By Andrew BeyerWASHINGTON - After Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby, all reports of the race noted the 50-1 payoff was the second highest in the race's history. Even so, most casual fans probably did not appreciate the magnitude of this incomprehensible upset.
Because many people blindly bet on longshots in the Derby, even hopeless horses rarely go off at odds higher than 50-1. Mine That Bird deserved to be 200-1. This was one of the biggest upsets in the history of American racing. In my four decades of covering the sport, it ranks as one of the two most mystifying results in a major stakes race, along with Canonero II's victory in the 1971 Derby.
For devotees of speed figures - which usually have been a reliable gauge of Derby horses - this result was especially hard to explain. Since the publication of the Beyer Speed Figures, the weakest horse to win the Derby was Giacomo, who had never earned a figure higher than 98 before he scored his 50-1 upset in 2005. Yet Giacomo looked like a superhorse compared with Mine That Bird, whose best lifetime figure was the 81 he recorded while losing an obscure stakes race in New Mexico. His figure of 105 in the Derby represented a 17-length improvement.
How did it happen? I put that question Sunday to a few of the people whose opinions I respect the most: professional handicappers Maury Wolff and Paul Cornman; New York Racing Association TV analyst Andy Serling; and ESPN commentator Randy Moss. With their help, I have tried to fashion an explanation for Saturday's events.
It's not a simple explanation, but as Moss said, "What happened was a perfect storm of situations that added up to give you a wacky result."
These were the elements of the perfect storm:
* The Derby field was weak and the best horses delivered poor performances on the sloppy track.
* Racing on or near the rail was an advantage at Churchill Downs on Saturday, and jockey Calvin Borel took advantage of the conditions by keeping Mine That Bird on the rail.
* Mine That Bird obviously relished the sloppy track, and he evidently possessed more talent than his past performances indicated.
* The two outstanding members of the 3-year-old crop, I Want Revenge and Quality Road, had been knocked out of the Derby by injuries; I Want Revenge was scratched on the morning of the race. In their absence, nobody possessed rock-solid credentials.
Even in a normal year, few horses deliver peak performances in the Derby - it's an extraordinarily difficult and stressful race. Over a sloppy track, even fewer horses fire their best shots. On Saturday, Friesan Fire, the favorite, barely picked up his feet and lost by more than 40 lengths. Dunkirk, the second choice, lost by more than 20. Almost nobody besides the winner ran well. If Mine That Bird hadn't been in the field, the winning speed figure for the Derby would have been 95 - by far the lowest ever for a Triple Crown event.
Besides having trouble with the sloppy track, many of the horses in the Derby were compromised by the bias of the Churchill racing strip. Most of the winners Saturday spent all or part of their journeys near the rail, and nobody won by circling the field. This was no secret: ESPN's commentators were talking about the bias all afternoon and asking jockeys about it. But few of the riders in the Derby tried to take advantage of the rail, except for Borel, whose propensities have earned him the nickname "Bo-Rail." His performance was almost a duplicate of his rail-skimming ride aboard Street Sense in the 2007 Derby. Wolff observed: "With any other rider, Mine That Bird doesn't get that trip."
The bias wasn't so strong that it was propelling bad horses to victory. There hadn't been any absurd results on the Churchill card before the Derby. In the Derby, jockey Kent Desormeaux also stayed on the rail with his mount, Hold Me Back, and he made a strong move down the backstretch and into the turn before his mount faltered badly. So the winner needed some talent to take advantage of his ground-saving trip.
Presumably Mine That Bird improved because he relished the sloppy track - something no handicapper could have anticipated before the race. But the gelding may have also been a better horse than he looked on paper. After the Derby, I reviewed the films of his previous races. In both of his starts this spring at New Mexico's Sunland Park, his jockey had made ill-judged, premature moves to vie for the lead. In both races he fought tenaciously before he faded in the stretch. I would imagine some handicappers in New Mexico were eagerly waiting to bet him the next time he ran. However, no rational handicapper could have considered these trips a harbinger of a victory in the Kentucky Derby.
Mine That Bird's win will be popularly regarded as the result of a once-in-a-lifetime perfect storm. Probably this opinion is correct; probably the gelding will never win another major race. However, I can remember that the other utterly implausible Derby winner, Canonero II, was regarded the same way. Two weeks later he won the Preakness and forced all of the doubters to revise their opinion that the Derby was a fluke.
(c) 2009, The Washington Post
Monday, May 4, 2009
*Sigh* My Derby Recap
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
I got humiliated. I admit it. At least my misery has a ton of company on this one.
While I have noticed an inverse proportion between how much you follow horse racing and how much you enjoyed this Derby, I can't really call this Derby a fluke.
It's a fluke in that there was ABSOLUTELY no way one could have bet on this horse, and was impossible to see coming. But it was not a fluke in how it won. That may sound obvious, but horseplayers know what I mean. There wasn't a pace meltdown, the top 5 horses didn't all get boxed in or interfered with, there wasn't a horse that ran into tons of traffic early on but was running the faster at the end, but just ran out of room, etc. What I don't enjoy admitting is that Mine that Bird was the only horse running at the end. No one ran remotely as well as he did, and no other horse has an excuse. Sure the sloppy track conditions were a hinderance, but every horse was hidered equally, and a horse like Friesan Fire would have preferred the slop.
A few other things worth noting: Mine that Bird covered the mile and a quarter in 2:02:4/5 (two minutes, 2 seconds and 4/5ths), for which he received a Beyer Speed Figure of 105. In 2004 Smarty Jones, regarded as a borderline superhorse won the Derby over a sloppy track in 2:04 and received a Beyer of 107. 1994 was the next-most-recent Derby over a sloppy track, it was won by Go For Gin in 2:03:3/5, for which he received a Beyer of 112. In order for Mine that Bird to be assessed a Beyer of 105 indicates that the track was running faster on Saturday, than it was for the 2004, and 1994 Derbies, but the raw time itself lends credibility to the Bird's performance.
Taking away from Mine That Bird's glory is that Rachel Alexandra's Kentuck Oaks race the day before was given a Beyer Speed Figure of 108. This Steven Crist Blog article compares the two very nicely. Comparisons like this have several horseplayers lining up to point out that Rachel Alexandra should have raced against the boys in the Derby, and she surely would have won if she had. The brilliance of Rachel Alexandra shouldn't cast a shadow over MTB's performance, nor is she obligated to race against boys, but the discussion of "What if Rachel Alexandra ran in the '09 Derby" will probably remain a footnote in Derby lore for years to come.
Plenty of race fans are admiring Calvin Borel's masterful ride, and rightfully so, but many also assert that his ride was so good that he could have won with any horse on Saturday. That's taking things much too far. Mine that Bird was the only horse running at the end. As fantastic as Borel's ride was, I don't think he is responsible for all 6 3/4 lengths that MTB won by. Unquestionably, Calvin Borel was the best jockey in the Derby, but even though I don't enjoy admitting it, he also had the best horse that day.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Rachel Alexandra Kicks Hiney
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
The impressive filly Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks today by only 20 lengths. Had she entered the Derby (she's a chick horse and would be racing against dudes) she would have been the favorite. Instead she raced against the girls, many of whom avoided her by not entering this race, and humiliated them.
The only bad part about this race is that Churchill Down's new announcer is annoying and sounds like CNN's aptonym, Richard Quest.
Steven Haskins Admits to Being a "Hopeless Romantic", Picks Derby Winner
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
Here's my final installment of Haskin plagarism. A few things to note: at the bottom of the article he mentions how the Derby betting began today (friday) at Churchill, and notes the shifting odds on a few notables.
Whoever Steve selects as having the best derby workout and who looks the most impressive visually is always worth noting.
He didn't give my homey Regal Ransom much of a shot, which I didn't mind because it will keep his odds nice and high. I also think that a sloppy track makes picking even more of a crapshoot, I think it favors horses on or near the lead. The slop takes a way a horse's turn of foot (i.e. acceleration) and it's hard for a closer to make a bold move. With all of the traffic in the Derby, a turn of foot is almost always required to win (it wasn't with Giacomo and Big Brown didn't have to use his). While Regal Ransom doesnt show any experience in the slop, I don't think it will hinder him more than it would any other horses, and it may even help.
Here's the article:
Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks
Posted: Friday, May 1, 2009 2:36 PM
To start, this is as tough a
I cannot remember a
But you don’t hear him name mentioned much, and very few handicappers and media members are picking him. As I mentioned in a previous column, I do not pick favorites in the
From a looks standpoint, no one is thriving here more than Pioneerof the
Going by their potential odds, I would bet Pioneerof the
The horse I’m really struggling with is
That pretty much is where I stand with the horses who likely will go off at lower single-digit odds.
Now, let’s get to the real business at hand. I admit to being a hopeless romantic who cannot resist the lure of a great story. But I never allow that cloud my judgment when it comes to observing a horse. In the case of this year’s Cinderella horse General Quarters, however, I am seeing a horse who is primed for a big effort, both physically and mentally. He is galloping out of his skin and is getting tough. He is bright and alert and appears to be in the zone. He just needs it all to come together on Saturday. I have no idea how good this horse is or if he’s fast enough; I’m just getting the signs he is sitting on a big race. And remember, he did turn in a sensational work over this track before the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (I can’t believe I’m liking another horse coming off the Blue Grass). There is no guarantee he’ll handle a sloppy track, but he has enough slop influences (A.P. Indy , Unbridled's Song ,
As shocked as I am about liking the winner of the Blue Grass, I am doubly shocked that I also like the runner-up Hold Me Back, who is another who has been tearing around the track in the mornings as if he means business, and I loved his most recent work in company. I normally wouldn’t like a big, long-striding horse like him in the slop, but I think he’s getting good right now and he’s coming off an excellent prep that should set him up for a big effort. If he doesn’t win I still think he’ll be flying late, as long as we don’t have a pronounced speed-biased track.
The third horse at a price I like is Chocolate Candy, even though I wasn’t crazy about his getting hot and bothered when Jerry Hollendorfer changed his schedule and brought him later in the morning when there was more acitvity. This is one of the most easy-going horses in the field, so that was surprising. He’s done well since, so you just have to hope whatever was bugging him won’t be an issue on Derby Day. What I really like about this colt is the way he has improved physically since he arrived here. And one of his best mornings was when he galloped over a sloppy track and was loving it, according to his exercise rider Lindsey Molina. Also, if you like Pioneerof the
The other horse I am struggling with is Desert Party, who I was all set to pick as my best bet at a price. I still will bet this horse to win, because he’s had a number of terrific mornings, including an eventful, but overly impressive work. He is all class with an air of nobility about him, and he will be Godolphin’s best chance to win the
For a 50-1 shot who could hit the board, Flying Private has been looking and training super.
So, in a nutshell, my main win bet will be General Quarters, woth possible savers on Desert Party, Chocolate Candy, and Hold Me Back, depending on their odds.
My exotics would be to box General Quarters and Desert Party in exactas and trifectas with the favorite or favorites of your choice (I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, Pioneerof the Nile or Dunkirk); General Quarters and Hold Me Back with one or more of the four favorites, and General Quarters and Chocolate Candy with one or more of the four favorites.
If you want to try for a monster score and toss the favorites altogether, how about a four-horse exacta or trifecta box of General Quarters, Desert Party, Hold Me Back, and Chocolate Candy?
Friday Odds
There are some surprises in the odds as of 2 o’clock Friday, as this is being completed, such as Chocolate Candy at an unappealing 8-1 and Hold Me Back at a so-so 11-1. I am hoping those odds go up.
Watch tomorrow for any updates in the column, as we get a better idea who the best bargains will be. But right now I’m still sticking with General Quarters, despite his sentiment-driven odds, and Desert Party as the best overlay at 26-1, despite his post.
Whether or not you pay any attention to these ramblings, don't forget about the best work/overall appearance (PIoneerof the Nile) and the slop and fitness factor (Friesan Fire) to include in any exotics.
This Is Kinda Awesome
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
That artist does all the cover art for the DRF. His website his here.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Horse Racing Yoda Speaks
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
My title/headline is correct. Accept no substitutes. He talks, you listen. Or as Ludacris says, "Nicka, shut yo' ass up when you hear a pimp talk.". Same thing.
Let it be known that this guy is something special. He is better at his job that basically anyone else is at theirs. He revolutionized his profession 30 years ago, and is still the best at what he does. On top of all of that, it's plain to see he is a transcendentally intelligent individual just by reading his transcript. I just hope he gets a sculpture of his bust somewhere after he dies (not that he's close to that). He's great.
Here it is.
Talkin Derby: Is Regal Ransom Really my Derby Pick?
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
Here is Regal Ransom winning his last race, the 2009 UAE Derby where he holds off the favored stablemate, Desert Party.
This was the third meeting betwixt these two foes and Regal Ransom's first time getting the better of Desert Party.
There are a few things to like about Regal Ransom, and not just his price (30-1 morning line).
- His bulleted work on 4/25 at Churchill. He faster than the other 29 horses that attempted that distance that day, and three other Derby foes (including Desert Party).
- His work on 4/18 was 4th best of 28 that day, but was not bested by any Derby foes.
- His pedigree suggests he can win this one. Regal Ransom is half-brother to Funny Cide who won the 2003 Derby, and also half-brother to Flower Alley who won the 2006 Travers and was nosed in the Breeder's Cup Classic by Horse of the Year Saint Liam. Clearly, this family isn't afraid of a little distance over a dirt surface.
- He is one of two horses that are widely accepted by everyone to be on the lead at some point during the race. The other being the much less talented Join the Dance, who is thought to get out to the early lead, before relinquishing it to Regal Ransom somewhere toward the middle of the race.
Those are my main, bulleted points. He likes the local surface, appears to be in top form, he has the pedigree, and he is less likely to incur traffic problems than all of the favorites.
The way I see the race playing is very similar to how everyone else does, at least for the first mile. Something like this: After all the bunching chaos getting to the first turn, Join the Dance (from the 9 slot) will be in front, with Regal Ransom (from the 10) not far behind. They're the only two horse who appear, 1) to want to be on the lead, and 2) who have a post-position to be able to do so. So behind them is anyone's guess. It oughta be helter skelter behind them. The less-talented horses from the 1-5 slots will be clinging to the rail, hoping to save ground. Friesan Fire and Papa Clem from the respective 6 and 7 posts will be doing something similar, not trying to fan out too wide, but also not wanting to get shuffled back either. Mine that Bird from the 8th post may get left in the dust, paving the way for our friends Join the Dance and Regal Ransom to cut right to the front of the line from the 9 and 10 spots.
So that's the first, and inner-half of the horses as
they break to the first turn. After them I expect the 11, 12 and 14 (Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and Atomic Rain, respectively) horses to sprint in along the rest and follow suit with all the horses to the inside. While you are probably thinking to yourself, "Ok, moron, I get it. Every horse sprints out to try to get a good spot along the rail. Duh." But I think Big Brown's performance last year changed the thinking of a lot of talented horses with outside posts- which we have a lot of this year, which I don't find to be a coincidence. When Big Brown won from the 20 post last year, he basically told the horses, "Ok guys, my talent towers over you all. The only way I lose is if one of you numskulls in front of me at the beginning boxes me in or cuts me off. If I have room, no one has a chance. The only way I can assure myself of that is to be in my own lane- 6 wide. So I'll beat you suckers from post 20 and not even try to get over toward the rail."And surprisingly, he did just that.
So with the big names being in posts 13 (I Want Revenge), 15 (Dunkirk), and 16 (Pioneeer of the Nile), and to a lesser degree 19 (Desert Party), and emboldened by Big Brown's new Derby blueprint of success, I think those guys will all hang back, or hang outside I should say.
They are gonna roam the outside like a pack of hungry cheetahs eyeing some gazelles and wait to pounce. But these are patient Cheetahs and they won't pounce until their prey get heavy legs, say around the quarter-pole.This is where my theory differs from those of many others.
At the quarter-pole, most people see this pack of hellcats- IWR, Dunkirk, PON, and maybe DP all letting loose their run and picking off horses one by one until one member of that pack wins and possibly three of them completing the Trifecta, unless some other lucky scoundrel clunks up for third. In all honesty, that is also what I expect too. The problem though is a financial one. Those 4 horses, along with Friesan Fire and Hold Me Back, will the the 6 top betting interests. While I can't get excited about the traffic that FF and HMB will encounter, I also can't put much between the Cheetah Hellcats- IWR, Dunkirk, PON and DP. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if any of them won, or any combination of them finished or didn't finish in the money. So what should I do? Box the top 4 horses? No thank you. Especially not with such other juicy prices on the board.
So what DO we know? Regal Ransom is going to get a good, ground saving trip near the rail and he'll try and hold off (maybe FF) and the Cheetah Hellcats whom, some of them, may have gotten caught 5,6, or 7 wide around the entire track. These Hellcats are some of the most talented 3 year olds in the world, but freaks they are not. They'll have some heavy legs and some work left to do to catch our boy Regal Ransom.
Regal
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Q: What if that scenario doesn't pan out? What if the first half of my race prediction is 100% correct, but Regal Ransom just comes up empty and gets swallowed up by the hellcats with 5/16ths of a mile left? Then who wins?
A: Again, that one is anyone's guess. You know who it WON'T be. The tosses are: West Side
Bernie, Musket Man, Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, Mine That Bird, Join the Dance, General Quarters, Atomic Rain, Summer Rain, Nowhere to Hide, and Flying Private. That is 11/20 of the horses. Then of course, the premise of this question asserts that Regal Ransom is out of the money. So that's 12/20 gone.That leaves: Hold me Back, Chocolate Candy and Papa Clem who I BARELY didn't include in the "toss" pile, they have only slightly more than 0% chance of winning. So that's 15/20 who just aren't gonna win. Who does that leave? You guessed it. Desert Party, Friesan Fire and the Hellcats. The only value in that would be to have Deserty Party on top, which is possible but coming from the 19 post, and asking him to run past Dunkirk, IWR and PON is a tall order. So then who do you like? The three favorites, or FF who will have miserable traffic, and may need a clear path, mud AND a killer pace to win?
So if you think/agree it will come down to the top three favorites it's STILL hard to put anything between them. As I've said before, you can't just box those three in trifecta or exacta, and call it a betting day.
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Q: If RR or a Hellcat doesn't win, who will?
Here's a visual hint:
A: Desert Party. Or maaaybe Friesan Fire. Apart from RR and the Triumverate of Hellcats, I don't think anyone has a chance, except MAYBE Papa Clem. I like Desert Party more than I like Friesan Fire, but I think Friesan Fire has a great running style to win a Derby. FF offers far less value, and again, I think he'll have a nightmare trip.
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Q: So who is the best Hellcat?
A: I hate to say it, but probably I Want Revenge. Granted, that's not taking a huge stand because his odds reflect that. He just has so many fewer question marks than the others, and that distinguishes him from the field for me. Chief among those distinctions is that he has had dirt kicked in his face in a Grade 1 AND he has won that race. Not say fast, Pioneer of the Nile, I said "dirt kicked in his face" not "synthetic running surface kicked in his face". Which brings me to my final question
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Q: If every horse magically gets a perfect trip and they all run to the best of their potential on dirt at this distance, who wins?
A: Dunkirk.
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Q: Do you have a lucky t-shirt that you wear to big horse races? Specifically, a shirt that you took after the 2004 Travers when, after a race in torrential downpour 3 drunk kids (and the only three people watching the race on the rail) took their shirts off, hopped the fence and ran onto the track, appearing briefly on ESPN behind the winner's circle then were arrested, and upon seeing them get arrested you realized that they wouldn't be coming back to claim their discarded shirt, so you went down in the downpour to grab a salmon-colored shirt from a newly arrested drunken degenerate?
A: Funny you should ask. I do have a shirt obtained by those means. It appears below.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
T.R. Salutes: Tom Durkin- UPDATED
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
He's a horse racing announcer for Saratoga, Belmont, and (I think still) Aqueduct. I think he still does the KY Derby and he has done the Breeder's Cup for several years but didn't renew his contract to do so starting in like 2005. It's probably better that I stop winging it and let you read his Wikipedia profile. The point is, he's awesome. Not that it is surprising, since he's from Chicago.
He's a consummate professional, though rarely consummates his relationships with other professionals while he is working, especially while eating consumme. His knowledge of the sport is extensive, and he always manages to mix in just enough silliness when necessary, to remind us all that we are watching horse racing for the purpose of having fun.
Since I don't know a whole lot about the guy, so my salutation of him will have to be primarily via YouTube replays of his most memorable calls. In a way, I feel sheepish about posting these because they're basically his funniest moments, and he doesn't fancy himself any kind of comedian. After decades of flawless announcing these moments of whimsy are anamolies, but memorable and likable all the same.
9/5/09 UPDATEUPDATE: We have an unprecedented INSTANT CLASSIC. This is Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward from 9/5/09. You can read more about the race here.
UPDATE: I TOTALLY forgot about this one and it's in my top 3 favorite of his calls. The 2004 Belmont Stakes where the horse racing world was positive that Smarty Jones was going to win the triple crown and everyone was cheering him on. He was a feel-good story for a lot of reasons and everyone was thoroughly prepared to explode with delight. I was at that race that day, the attendance was 120,000 which broke the previous record of 100,000. If I recall correctly, as I always do, that was the day Ronald Regan died. Anyway, you can hear in Durkin's voice how exuberant he is when it looks like Smarty will win ("..it's been 26 years...."), and how crestfallen he is when he utters, "...Birdstone wins the Belmont Stakes." This and the call in the last clip of the bunch are masterpieces of race calling, and of letting your human-side into your voice, but not your comments.
Arrr
A horse with a stupidly long name
"No need to call it" a good example of a less humorous call, but one that illustrates his appreciation for the sport.
Durkin's memorable call of a VERY foggy race. This couldn't have been done any better.
He was in fine voice for a horse named Doremifasolatido
Ohnoitsmymothernlaw- Good race, funny call.
Finally is my favorite sports announcing job ever, and it was done by Mr. Durkin. Allow me to put this race in context for you. The race is the Breeder's Cup Classic which is the biggest horse race of the year, monetarily, in North America. Horses come from all over the world for this race, and this is the one race every single trainer wants to win. Also note that it was on 10/27/2001, making it the first major sporting event after 9/11. While baseball and football regular season vailiantly played immediately after 9/11, those were regular season games. No major sport had had a post season yet, and the Breeder's Cup is like the entire playoffs in one day, culminating in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Furthering the patriotic undertones, several of the favorites for this race were European horses, with Tiznow being America's hope, basically. Tizow won this race last year, and if he could somehow manage to upset the favored European invaders, he would become the first horse to repeat as winner of the BC Classic. Oh, I forget to mention that this race took place in Belmont Park, a track located in New York City. It was almost the horse-racing vesion of Rocky against Drago, but on American soil. I think you'll find that Tiznow showed determination of Balboan proportion in the race as well. Here is Tom Durkin's call, my favorite call in the history of sports. Tiznow is wearing pink.
Talking Derby: Link Dump
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
Since I have a lot of research to do before the Derby now that my future's exactas are rubbish, I figured I'd pass along what I'm reading. It's worth noting, and I think you'll read it a few times if you read all these links, that Derby workouts sometimes foretell the winners. You'll read that Barbaro and Street Sense's worked leapt off the track and screamed "I'm going to win!" to the likes of Steve Haskin and Mike Welsch. Big Brown didn't have any off-the-charts works, but was the best horse by far, and his win was not shocking. So we'll be on the lookout for any jumps off the page of course, but we'll also be looking for any works that seem to defy a horse's poor odds. Last year Denis of Cork went off at 27-1, but finished third. I was not nearly as surprised by this as were many others, not because I detected this on anything I read in his Past Performances, but because I read Haskin oogling his recent Churchill works.
Another thing to think about when handicapping this race is where the pace will come from? Quality Road was the presumed pacesetter in this race, or at least the class of the speedsters. Now that he is gone every other favored horse will be in the same spot in the race- coming from just off the pace. There are no legitimate speedsters and no legitimate deep closers, only stalkers. Being difficult to differentiate between the stalkers, and financially, lacking any incentive to, it may be worth looking for a longshot to go wire-to-wire. IF a long shot wins, I think he'll do so leading throughout the race and getting away with slow fractions, and still having enough stank in the tank to fend off the late running stalkers. I can't foresee a 30-1 shot out kicking Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Pioneer of the Nile and Desert Party, but I could see one getting loose on the lead end fending them off like happened in the 2008 Arlington Million. So far I think only Regal Ransom has that capability, but I'll be looking for more. It may also happen that a stalking-style horse is sent to the lead and surprises everyone. Pace makes the race, so deciphering that is square one.
The Derby Field
Derby contender Past Performances (this was done before the field was drawn. So the Post Positions are not listed and not every horse listed is running. If you use this, you'll have to cross-reference it with the above link).
This chat transcript from last night They will have another chat on Wednesday and on Thursday will have one with Andrew Beyer, who is basically the Yoda of handicapping.
Wednesday's chat (here's the transcript) is with this guy, that the NYT did a piece on. Untrue to NYT form, this article is not 87 pages long. It's one webpage long, informative and good. Short, sweet, but complete.
Steve Haskin's Derby Report. If you've ever wondered why I call him the Bob Ross of Horse racing, you'll see why here. Its how he describes the horse's strides, body language and their coat. The "human" element of the horses themselves as animals is what makes horse racing unique. Gotta love it.
Same goes for his Derby Dozen report as of 4/27
DRF's EIC Steve Crist showing why he's among the very best.
This is me After Quality Road's Defection
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
That's a self portrait. I took the pic myself after my makeover. I thought if I denied QR's Derby Defection long enough that he would eventually run in the Derby. Turns out that was incorrect. He is not running.
While I knew there was a legitimate chance he wouldn't be running, I didn't bother to approach the race as if he were NOT running. I'm going to do that in the next day or two and get my findings posted.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Talking Derby: Plagarizing Steve Crist
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
Taken from here
Crist Blog | April 22, 2009
Early Pickin's
I don't have to make my 1-2-3 picks for the Derby Day newspaper until a week from tonight, but I'm already pretty sure who the three horses will be: Dunkirk, I Want Revenge and Quality Road, though not necessarily in that order.
Go ahead, call me a chalk-eating weasel. I know they're three of the five favorites, but I just think they're not only the best horses out there but also good enough that they've separated themselves from the rest. My feeling 10 days out is that all three would have to misfire for someone else to wear the roses.
If I were making out a Derby Day pick-6 or pick-4 ticket, they'd be my three A's. At the moment I'm not loving anyone else enough to have any B's. My C's would be Friesan Fire and Pioneerofthenile, out of slightly grudging respect for their records and their handlers; I'll probably talk myself into one more backup, some crazy longshot, if only because it seems you're obliged to like one crazy longshot in the Derby.
While I feel obliged to use Friesan Fire and Pioneerof the Nile defensively as win candidates, I'm also willing to play against both of them in the intrarace exotics. While both of them are obviously talented and admirably consistent, Friesan Fire's only fast race was on a sloppy track, and Pioneerof the Nile has never raced on dirt. I have no quarrel with the opinion of clockers that POTN is training superbly on dirt at Churchill, but I seem to recall that's what everyone was saying about Curlin before he tried a synthetic track for the first time in last year's BC Classic. You just don't know until they race on it. To speculate that Pioneerof the Nile will not only handle dirt as well as synth, but also improve several lengths, I'd want at least double his likely odds of around 8-1.
Some may say it's folly to be coming to conclusions this far out: What about final workouts, and the post-position draw, and listening to other people's opinions, and watching more replays and studying more charts? We'll all do all that, and enjoy it, but I'd be surprised if my opinion changes radically. I have no longstanding loyalties to anyone in the race, no future wagers, no weekly Top 10 Picks List to justify my selections against. May the best horse win, and here's hoping that turns out to be one of my three -- preferably, whichever one I end up putting on top.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Quality Road has ANOTHER Quarter Crack in different Hoof
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
I couldn't find my picture of Quality Road, so I'm putting this one up instead.
First Rod Blagojevich won't be on reality tv, now Quality Road, my boy, may miss the Kentucky Derby. Here is my plagarism relating to Quality Road. I took it from here. You can also read about it here.
Another quarter crack for Quality Road
By David GreningELMONT, N.Y. - After getting over a quarter crack on his right hind foot, Quality Road has developed a quarter crack on his right front foot that puts his status for the May 2 Kentucky Derby in doubt.
Trainer Jimmy Jerkens canceled Saturday's scheduled workout at Belmont Park and said Friday morning that if the horse could not breeze by Monday "then it looks like we won't be able to go."
Based on victories in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, Quality Road figured to be one of the Derby favorites.
Jerkens said he noticed the quarter crack Thursday morning as Quality Road was about to be get new shoes following his morning training session.
"We always pull him in the middle there to dry his legs off, look everything over and there it was," Jerkens said. "It didn t have any blood or anything but it was there. We pulled him into shoe him; it wasn t something you could see too easy unless you got real to close to it."
Quality Road had his wrapped in animalintex, which contains a mild antiseptic plus natural poultice agent designed to draw any heat or infection from the area. Jerkens said he did not think there was any infection. On Friday, Quality Road remained in the barn.
Ian McKinlay, the noted hoof equine specialist, saw the crack Thursday and was scheduled to examine Quality Road Friday afternoon, Jerkens said.
"If he's able to lace it today, he could gallop tomorrow and if he comes back without any problems then he can patch it right away," Jerkens said. "He ll have to determine if it'll need another day of drying out or not."
Jerkens said he would like to be able to gallop Quality Road on Saturday and work him on Sunday. "More realistically, I'm thinking it would be gallop him Sunday and work Monday."
Quality Road is scheduled to leave for Kentucky on Tuesday.
Quality Road suffered a quarter crack on his right hind foot while winning the Florida Derby on March 28. The original patch that was put on by a farrier in south Florida did not hold, and Quality Road had some blood coming from that foot following a routine gallop on April 6. McKinlay put a new patch on the hind foot April 8 and the horse has twice worked without any incident.
UPDATE: After giving it some thought, I decided that if Quality Road does not run in the Derby I am going goth. Black hair, black fingernails, black jeans, the whole nine.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Talking Derby: Odds and Ends
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
I was too lazy to get into my my folder to find a horse racing pic and that one was on my desktop, so I just posted it. I like it, but feel bad for the Orangutan. But any Orangutan willing to wear a life-preserver is a good sport in my book.
Fun's over, lets get down to biznass.
- Schedule of Arrival for Derby entrants
- Recap of Derby works and other related tidbits
- Top 20 Graded Stakes Earners/Derby eligible horses
Monday, April 20, 2009
Talking Derby, Plagarism Style: Steve Haskin Back in the Habit
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
This is Steve doing what he does when he isn't snubbing TR Slyder.
Anyway, this article is proof of why he's an indispensable read come Derby time. Next week he'll be trackside at Churchill giving us masterful reports of the Derby workouts.
Taken from here
Ky. Derby Trail: Derby Dynamics
Posted: Monday, April 20, 2009 4:53 PM
This final Derby Trail column before departing for
Before the major works start up, let’s take a preliminary look at the different aspects of this year’s
It is ironic that the three-career-start whammy has been broken, but four career starts still exists, with Exterminator in 1918 being the last to accomplish that. Quality Road will try to break that one.
As for Apollo, the last favorite to attempt to win the
In 2006, Barbaro took care of the theory that you couldn’t win the
Remember when you couldn’t win the
Let’s also remember that Funny Cide single-handedly destroyed two other so-called curses – being a gelding (Clyde Van Dusen in 1929) and a New York-bred (first-time in history).
So, even if you’re a believer in historic trends, as I have always been, remember that times are changing, and quickly. Who knows what a horse can accomplish nowadays.
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There have been several comments recently, claiming that the
The big question at this point is, who will be the pace factors? We know Papa Clem has early lick if they want to use it, but he came from fifth to win the Arkansas Derby. Will Godolphin run Regal Ransom, the front-running winner of the UAE Derby? If they do, he likely will be the pacesetter. And will the speedy Join in the Dance make the starting field? He currently is at No. 22, and his owners have said they will run if he gets in. And you can bet that his trainer, Todd Pletcher, would love to see him in there to cut out a good pace for
If Godolphin wanted to use a little sly strategy, they could enter Regal Ransom to possibly keep Join in the Dance out. If they succeed, they could have the only true speed in the race with a legitimate shot to wire the field or help set it up for Desert Party. If Join in the Dance makes it into the race anyway, then they can scratch Regal Ransom if they want and save him for the Preakness.
For those jockeys who would tend to pay little attention to Regal Ransom on the lead, remember War Emblem. Regal Ransom is a horse who earned a spectacular “2” Thoro-Graph number in his career debut last year, so he has a strong foundation to fall back on.
The other distinct possibility is that if the pace is soft,
If Regal Ransom and Join in the Dance both run there should be an honest pace. If the fractions are testing or start to pick up noticeably after five-eighths of a mile, remember that I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Musket Man, and Desert Party (although he could take farther back) all should be fairly close together and will be making their moves at around the same time. Most of those horses have registered triple-digit Beyers, including highs of 113 by I Want Revenge and
But, keep in mind the 2005 Derby, when the slower horses were supposedly no match for Wood Memorial winner Bellamy Road (120 Beyer), Arkansas Derby winner Afleet Alex (108 Beyer), Blue Grass winner Bandini (103 Beyer), Louisiana Derby winner High Limit (105 Beyer), Illinois Derby winner Greeley's Galaxy (106 Beyer), and Florida Derby winner High Fly (102 Beyer). All, with the exception of Afleet Alex, had similar running styles to the 2009 horses mentioned above. They all made their moves at the same time after a wicked pace and all were cooked by the three-sixteenths pole, setting it up one of the so-called slow closers, Giacomo , at 50-1. No one knows what kind of pace we’ll have this year. It likely will not be as fast as in 2005, but you can be sure all those aforementioned horses will be moving together, making for a contentious cavalry charge approaching the quarter pole.
On the move behind them should be Pioneerof the Nile,
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If
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When
If Regal Ransom doesn’t run, then you can look next to Musket Man, who was born on May 10, followed by Pioneerof the
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Do you remember the Fighting Sullivans? Well, meet the Scrapping Smart Strikes. When was the last time you saw four tougher, grittier sons from the same stallion than Papa Clem,
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Now that WinStar Farm’s Advice has won the Lexington Stakes and could be headed to
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On the lighter side, I must admit I have not been to the windows to collect on a
As an example of my inability to turn these observations into cash, instead of going with the 6-1 Barbaro, I selected and bet on A.P. Warrior, despite his having no works at Churchill, and he wound up going off at only 14-1. Even worse was taking a pass on Smarty Jones (way too low for me at 4-1) and betting on Castledale, again with no works at Churchill, only because I loved the way he looked physically. I can’t even believe I am confessing to such stupidity after five years. To demonstrate what a “big-time” bettor I am, my $2 exacta of Monarchos and Invisible Ink ($1,229) in 2001 was the biggest ticket I have ever cashed.
Have I learned from my blunders? Probably not. I still cannot bet or pick short-priced horses in a 20-horse
(This has been a public service announcement. Bet responsibly).
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