*Sigh* My Derby Recap

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


I got humiliated. I admit it. At least my misery has a ton of company on this one.

While I have noticed an inverse proportion between how much you follow horse racing and how much you enjoyed this Derby, I can't really call this Derby a fluke.

It's a fluke in that there was ABSOLUTELY no way one could have bet on this horse, and was impossible to see coming. But it was not a fluke in how it won. That may sound obvious, but horseplayers know what I mean. There wasn't a pace meltdown, the top 5 horses didn't all get boxed in or interfered with, there wasn't a horse that ran into tons of traffic early on but was running the faster at the end, but just ran out of room, etc. What I don't enjoy admitting is that Mine that Bird was the only horse running at the end. No one ran remotely as well as he did, and no other horse has an excuse. Sure the sloppy track conditions were a hinderance, but every horse was hidered equally, and a horse like Friesan Fire would have preferred the slop.

A few other things worth noting: Mine that Bird covered the mile and a quarter in 2:02:4/5 (two minutes, 2 seconds and 4/5ths), for which he received a Beyer Speed Figure of 105. In 2004 Smarty Jones, regarded as a borderline superhorse won the Derby over a sloppy track in 2:04 and received a Beyer of 107. 1994 was the next-most-recent Derby over a sloppy track, it was won by Go For Gin in 2:03:3/5, for which he received a Beyer of 112. In order for Mine that Bird to be assessed a Beyer of 105 indicates that the track was running faster on Saturday, than it was for the 2004, and 1994 Derbies, but the raw time itself lends credibility to the Bird's performance.

Taking away from Mine That Bird's glory is that Rachel Alexandra's Kentuck Oaks race the day before was given a Beyer Speed Figure of 108. This Steven Crist Blog article compares the two very nicely. Comparisons like this have several horseplayers lining up to point out that Rachel Alexandra should have raced against the boys in the Derby, and she surely would have won if she had. The brilliance of Rachel Alexandra shouldn't cast a shadow over MTB's performance, nor is she obligated to race against boys, but the discussion of "What if Rachel Alexandra ran in the '09 Derby" will probably remain a footnote in Derby lore for years to come.

Plenty of race fans are admiring Calvin Borel's masterful ride, and rightfully so, but many also assert that his ride was so good that he could have won with any horse on Saturday. That's taking things much too far. Mine that Bird was the only horse running at the end. As fantastic as Borel's ride was, I don't think he is responsible for all 6 3/4 lengths that MTB won by. Unquestionably, Calvin Borel was the best jockey in the Derby, but even though I don't enjoy admitting it, he also had the best horse that day.