Talkin Derby: Is Regal Ransom Really my Derby Pick?

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


Here is Regal Ransom winning his last race, the 2009 UAE Derby where he holds off the favored stablemate, Desert Party.

This was the third meeting betwixt these two foes and Regal Ransom's first time getting the better of Desert Party.

There are a few things to like about Regal Ransom, and not just his price (30-1 morning line).

• His bulleted work on 4/25 at Churchill. He faster than the other 29 horses that attempted that distance that day, and three other Derby foes (including Desert Party).
• His work on 4/18 was 4th best of 28 that day, but was not bested by any Derby foes.
  
• His pedigree suggests he can win this one. Regal Ransom is half-brother to Funny Cide who won the 2003 Derby, and also half-brother to Flower Alley who won the 2006 Travers and was nosed in the Breeder's Cup Classic by Horse of the Year Saint Liam. Clearly, this family isn't afraid of a little distance over a dirt surface.
• He is one of two horses that are widely accepted by everyone to be on the lead at some point during the race. The other being the much less talented Join the Dance, who is thought to get out to the early lead, before relinquishing it to Regal Ransom somewhere toward the middle of the race.

Those are my main, bulleted points. He likes the local surface, appears to be in top form, he has the pedigree, and he is less likely to incur traffic problems than all of the favorites.

The way I see the race playing is very similar to how everyone else does, at least for the first mile. Something like this: After all the bunching chaos getting to the first turn, Join the Dance (from the 9 slot) will be in front, with Regal Ransom (from the 10) not far behind. They're the only two horse who appear, 1) to want to be on the lead, and 2) who have a post-position to be able to do so. So behind them is anyone's guess. It oughta be helter skelter behind them. The less-talented horses from the 1-5 slots will be clinging to the rail, hoping to save ground. Friesan Fire and Papa Clem from the respective 6 and 7 posts will be doing something similar, not trying to fan out too wide, but also not wanting to get shuffled back either. Mine that Bird from the 8th post may get left in the dust, paving the way for our friends Join the Dance and Regal Ransom to cut right to the front of the line from the 9 and 10 spots.

So that's the first, and inner-half of the horses as they break to the first turn. After them I expect the 11, 12 and 14 (Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and Atomic Rain, respectively) horses to sprint in along the rest and follow suit with all the horses to the inside. While you are probably thinking to yourself, "Ok, moron, I get it. Every horse sprints out to try to get a good spot along the rail. Duh." But I think Big Brown's performance last year changed the thinking of a lot of talented horses with outside posts- which we have a lot of this year, which I don't find to be a coincidence. When Big Brown won from the 20 post last year, he basically told the horses, "Ok guys, my talent towers over you all. The only way I lose is if one of you numskulls in front of me at the beginning boxes me in or cuts me off. If I have room, no one has a chance. The only way I can assure myself of that is to be in my own lane- 6 wide. So I'll beat you suckers from post 20 and not even try to get over toward the rail."

And surprisingly, he did just that.

So with the big names being in posts 13 (I Want Revenge), 15 (Dunkirk), and 16 (Pioneeer of the Nile), and to a lesser degree 19 (Desert Party), and emboldened by Big Brown's new Derby blueprint of success, I think those guys will all hang back, or hang outside I should say. They are gonna roam the outside like a pack of hungry cheetahs eyeing some gazelles and wait to pounce. But these are patient Cheetahs and they won't pounce until their prey get heavy legs, say around the quarter-pole.

This is where my theory differs from those of many others.

At the quarter-pole, most people see this pack of hellcats- IWR, Dunkirk, PON, and maybe DP all letting loose their run and picking off horses one by one until one member of that pack wins and possibly three of them completing the Trifecta, unless some other lucky scoundrel clunks up for third. In all honesty, that is also what I expect too. The problem though is a financial one. Those 4 horses, along with Friesan Fire and Hold Me Back, will the the 6 top betting interests. While I can't get excited about the traffic that FF and HMB will encounter, I also can't put much between the Cheetah Hellcats- IWR, Dunkirk, PON and DP. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if any of them won, or any combination of them finished or didn't finish in the money. So what should I do? Box the top 4 horses? No thank you. Especially not with such other juicy prices on the board.

So what DO we know? Regal Ransom is going to get a good, ground saving trip near the rail and he'll try and hold off (maybe FF) and the Cheetah Hellcats whom, some of them, may have gotten caught 5,6, or 7 wide around the entire track. These Hellcats are some of the most talented 3 year olds in the world, but freaks they are not. They'll have some heavy legs and some work left to do to catch our boy Regal Ransom.

Regal Handsome Ransom is my pick. As far as exotics go, I think you can just go shopping after that. Exacta choices including putting him above and/or below any of the Hellcats, maybe mixing in Papa Clem for a huge potential score.

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Q: What if that scenario doesn't pan out? What if the first half of my race prediction is 100% correct, but Regal Ransom just comes up empty and gets swallowed up by the hellcats with 5/16ths of a mile left? Then who wins?

A: Again, that one is anyone's guess. You know who it WON'T be. The tosses are: West Side Bernie, Musket Man, Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, Mine That Bird, Join the Dance, General Quarters, Atomic Rain, Summer Rain, Nowhere to Hide, and Flying Private. That is 11/20 of the horses. Then of course, the premise of this question asserts that Regal Ransom is out of the money. So that's 12/20 gone.

That leaves: Hold me Back, Chocolate Candy and Papa Clem who I BARELY didn't include in the "toss" pile, they have only slightly more than 0% chance of winning. So that's 15/20 who just aren't gonna win. Who does that leave? You guessed it. Desert Party, Friesan Fire and the Hellcats. The only value in that would be to have Deserty Party on top, which is possible but coming from the 19 post, and asking him to run past Dunkirk, IWR and PON is a tall order. So then who do you like? The three favorites, or FF who will have miserable traffic, and may need a clear path, mud AND a killer pace to win?

So if you think/agree it will come down to the top three favorites it's STILL hard to put anything between them. As I've said before, you can't just box those three in trifecta or exacta, and call it a betting day.

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Q: If RR or a Hellcat doesn't win, who will?

Here's a visual hint:

A: Desert Party. Or maaaybe Friesan Fire. Apart from RR and the Triumverate of Hellcats, I don't think anyone has a chance, except MAYBE Papa Clem. I like Desert Party more than I like Friesan Fire, but I think Friesan Fire has a great running style to win a Derby. FF offers far less value, and again, I think he'll have a nightmare trip.

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Q: So who is the best Hellcat?

A: I hate to say it, but probably I Want Revenge. Granted, that's not taking a huge stand because his odds reflect that. He just has so many fewer question marks than the others, and that distinguishes him from the field for me. Chief among those distinctions is that he has had dirt kicked in his face in a Grade 1 AND he has won that race. Not say fast, Pioneer of the Nile, I said "dirt kicked in his face" not "synthetic running surface kicked in his face". Which brings me to my final question
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Q: If every horse magically gets a perfect trip and they all run to the best of their potential on dirt at this distance, who wins?

A: Dunkirk.

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Q: Do you have a lucky t-shirt that you wear to big horse races? Specifically, a shirt that you took after the 2004 Travers when, after a race in torrential downpour 3 drunk kids (and the only three people watching the race on the rail) took their shirts off, hopped the fence and ran onto the track, appearing briefly on ESPN behind the winner's circle then were arrested, and upon seeing them get arrested you realized that they wouldn't be coming back to claim their discarded shirt, so you went down in the downpour to grab a salmon-colored shirt from a newly arrested drunken degenerate?

A: Funny you should ask. I do have a shirt obtained by those means. It appears below.