By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
I like my BC Miles like I like my women. Dirty. With further ado lets get down to it. AJAJEOKAOMOEKOAKEOKE. That was the ado, now we're good to go.
I'm getting a little tired of doing this, quite honestly, so I'll be brief with this one as I was the last. All of the BC races that have only a $1 million purse are races for glorified also-rans. No one starts the year intent on winning the BC Marathon, or Dirt Mile. What happens is you try for the other, cooler divisions, shit the bed, and wind up here, figuring you at least got a horse to the Breeder's Cup. It's like being in a dorky fraternity. No one set out to be in the them, they all aspire to accept a bid from a cool one, then settle for crap-ass fraternity and feign excitement regarding that fraternity for the rest of their lives. Think of these races as dorko frats.
If First Defense is in this race, he'll win. Think of him as one of the "cool kids" who turned up his nose at the bid from the cool fraternity, because he didn't want all the pretense, and instead sided with a loser frat. If he races in this race, that's just what he will have done. He's an extremely accomplished sprinter, who may pass up the sprint for this busted-ass race. His specialty is 6 or 7F, and a mile is a bit of a stretch, but given the class discrepancy between him and the rest of the field, I think he'd be fine.
Another analogy would be if you were an awesome sprinter, you could either sprint against Usain Bolt and probably lose, or you could run the 400 in the Special Olympics and probably win. The sprint is loaded with talent, and the mile is the dorky fraternity.
Assuming he joins the cool kids at the BC Sprint, I see it like this.
1. Lewis Michael- No need to adjust your computer screen or assume a typo, I actually picked a non-favorite (assuming FD defects). This race had no clear cut dirt mile beast, so that opened things up. It's clear that no one was pointing toward this race, so nearly all of the horses are trying a new distance and/or surface. That's not the case for Lewis Michael. He's a synthetic specialist, and the mile is his best distance. He may not be as talented as others in this race, but he knows how to run this exact race. He's guaranteed to handle the surface well and the distance, and do so with very good talent. I'm taking that over exceptional talents maybe liking the distance and surface.
2. Well Armed- If the BC offered a race at 1 1/4 Well Armed would probably do very well in that. They do in fact over a race at that distance- the Classic, and that's for only for the elite of the elite. Well Armed, being merely elite, wussed out of that race. Probably a good idea. Instead he entered the Special Olympics at a new distance, hoping for the best. He'll take his formidable talent and shorten it up for this motley assortment. If First Defence is out, he'll tower over the field in terms of talent, but I'd just prefer a horse that had been waiting for this race all along instead of a horse I presume was training for the 1 1/4. To make one more analogy, picking Lewis Michael is like picking an average looking, loyal, caring woman to be your wife, instead of the hot bitch who might totally screw you over.
3. Either My Pal Charlie or Two Step Salsa- Why didn't I pick a clear third choice? I'll have Peter from Office Space provide my answer for me: "It's not that I'm lazy, Bob. It's just that, well, I don't care".
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com