Rachel Alexandra Kicks Hiney

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


The impressive filly Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks today by only 20 lengths. Had she entered the Derby (she's a chick horse and would be racing against dudes) she would have been the favorite. Instead she raced against the girls, many of whom avoided her by not entering this race, and humiliated them.

The only bad part about this race is that Churchill Down's new announcer is annoying and sounds like CNN's aptonym, Richard Quest.

Raindrops on Roses, and Whiskers on Kittens and....

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


If any of you tech junkies are looking for a fun mashup to do, I have a suggestion for you.

Rep. Alcee Hastings reads a list of technical terms for various fetishes. After hearing the list I couldn't help by sing, "...these are a few of my favorite things"

Steven Haskins Admits to Being a "Hopeless Romantic", Picks Derby Winner

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com

Here's my final installment of Haskin plagarism. A few things to note: at the bottom of the article he mentions how the Derby betting began today (friday) at Churchill, and notes the shifting odds on a few notables.

Whoever Steve selects as having the best derby workout and who looks the most impressive visually is always worth noting.

He didn't give my homey Regal Ransom much of a shot, which I didn't mind because it will keep his odds nice and high. I also think that a sloppy track makes picking even more of a crapshoot, I think it favors horses on or near the lead. The slop takes a way a horse's turn of foot (i.e. acceleration) and it's hard for a closer to make a bold move. With all of the traffic in the Derby, a turn of foot is almost always required to win (it wasn't with Giacomo and Big Brown didn't have to use his). While Regal Ransom doesnt show any experience in the slop, I don't think it will hinder him more than it would any other horses, and it may even help.

Here's the article:

Haskin's Derby Report: The Picks

By Steve Haskin

Updated: Friday, May 1, 2009 3:14 PM
Posted: Friday, May 1, 2009 2:36 PM

To start, this is as tough a Derby as I have ever had to decipher, with a case to be made for at least dozen of the horses. I will break the race down in several categories and then put it all together and come up with something that resembles a wagering strategy.

I cannot remember a Derby where the morning line favorite has received so little buzz. I have had I Want Revenge as my No. 1 pick for a couple of months and I’m not going to desert him now. He looks great, he’s been acting great and cleaning his feed tub every day, he’s had one of the more impressive works, and he’s bred to run 1 1/4 miles, so what’s not to like?

But you don’t hear him name mentioned much, and very few handicappers and media members are picking him. As I mentioned in a previous column, I do not pick favorites in the Derby when it comes to actual betting. The potential overlays are too enticing, especially this year with the prospect of a sloppy track and the uncertainty of the synthetic track horses switching to dirt.

From a looks standpoint, no one is thriving here more than Pioneerof the Nile, and Friesan Fire looks dead fit, with his pronounced muscle tone. But these are all short-priced horses, with Friesan Fire the buzz horse. Don’t be surprised to see him get a ton of action, despite his seven-week layoff and never having been farther than 1 1/16 miles. And if the track does come up sloppy, which is a good possibility, he could very well go off as the favorite after his seven-length romp in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) in the slop.

Going by their potential odds, I would bet Pioneerof the Nile as my value horse, based on what I’ve observed over the past eight days. I have not seen a single negative, and you can’t ask a horse to be doing any better. From a handicapping angle, he still has to answer the synthetic to dirt question, and a number of speed handicappers feel he’s not fast enough, but he gets my vote for best work and overall physical appearance. If he should win the Derby, then my colleague Jon White could be right; this horse is more than capable of sweeping the Triple Crown. He would then meet my criteria of what it takes to accomplish racing’s most difficult feat. But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.

The horse I’m really struggling with is Dunkirk, who I believe to be the most naturally gifted horse in the field, and who turned in the most memorable prep race of the year – his second-place finish in the Florida Derby, a performance I was crazy about. Strictly based on those factors he would be my selection. But I just haven’t seen enough of him in the mornings to pick him based on looks and training, which is the intent of this column. I did, however, pick him on our Bloodhorse.com video “And They’re Off.” The final good sign with him was Warrior’s Reward, who he crushed in a Gulfstream allowance race, winning a seven-furlong allowance race impressively at Churchill Downs on Friday

That pretty much is where I stand with the horses who likely will go off at lower single-digit odds.

Now, let’s get to the real business at hand. I admit to being a hopeless romantic who cannot resist the lure of a great story. But I never allow that cloud my judgment when it comes to observing a horse. In the case of this year’s Cinderella horse General Quarters, however, I am seeing a horse who is primed for a big effort, both physically and mentally. He is galloping out of his skin and is getting tough. He is bright and alert and appears to be in the zone. He just needs it all to come together on Saturday. I have no idea how good this horse is or if he’s fast enough; I’m just getting the signs he is sitting on a big race. And remember, he did turn in a sensational work over this track before the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (I can’t believe I’m liking another horse coming off the Blue Grass). There is no guarantee he’ll handle a sloppy track, but he has enough slop influences (A.P. Indy , Unbridled's Song , Danzig, Affirmed, and Round Table) to suggest it won’t be a problem. His third dam, Royal Honoree, is a half-sister to Dona Ysidra, the dam of Hall of Fame turf horse Manila.

As shocked as I am about liking the winner of the Blue Grass, I am doubly shocked that I also like the runner-up Hold Me Back, who is another who has been tearing around the track in the mornings as if he means business, and I loved his most recent work in company. I normally wouldn’t like a big, long-striding horse like him in the slop, but I think he’s getting good right now and he’s coming off an excellent prep that should set him up for a big effort. If he doesn’t win I still think he’ll be flying late, as long as we don’t have a pronounced speed-biased track.

The third horse at a price I like is Chocolate Candy, even though I wasn’t crazy about his getting hot and bothered when Jerry Hollendorfer changed his schedule and brought him later in the morning when there was more acitvity. This is one of the most easy-going horses in the field, so that was surprising. He’s done well since, so you just have to hope whatever was bugging him won’t be an issue on Derby Day. What I really like about this colt is the way he has improved physically since he arrived here. And one of his best mornings was when he galloped over a sloppy track and was loving it, according to his exercise rider Lindsey Molina. Also, if you like Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge at 3-1 and 5-1, then you should like him at 20-1 or higher. Finally, Hollendorfer has had so much bad luck at Churchill he certainly is due to have some good luck come his way.

The other horse I am struggling with is Desert Party, who I was all set to pick as my best bet at a price. I still will bet this horse to win, because he’s had a number of terrific mornings, including an eventful, but overly impressive work. He is all class with an air of nobility about him, and he will be Godolphin’s best chance to win the Derby by far. His stablemate Regal Ransom is very strong on the Thoro-Graph sheets, and has done nothing wrong here, but he’ll likely have to overcome pace pressure. Drawing post 19 is not going to help Desert Party, as he’s more than likely going to get parked wide, but there is no way of knowing if it’s going to hurt him.

For a 50-1 shot who could hit the board, Flying Private has been looking and training super.

So, in a nutshell, my main win bet will be General Quarters, woth possible savers on Desert Party, Chocolate Candy, and Hold Me Back, depending on their odds.

My exotics would be to box General Quarters and Desert Party in exactas and trifectas with the favorite or favorites of your choice (I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, Pioneerof the Nile or Dunkirk); General Quarters and Hold Me Back with one or more of the four favorites, and General Quarters and Chocolate Candy with one or more of the four favorites.

If you want to try for a monster score and toss the favorites altogether, how about a four-horse exacta or trifecta box of General Quarters, Desert Party, Hold Me Back, and Chocolate Candy?

Friday Odds

There are some surprises in the odds as of 2 o’clock Friday, as this is being completed, such as Chocolate Candy at an unappealing 8-1 and Hold Me Back at a so-so 11-1. I am hoping those odds go up. Dunkirk is an enticing 8-1, as is Pioneerof the Nile. General Quarters also is 8-1. So far, I’m not crazy about the odds. If Dunkirk is 8-1 tomorrow, you can be sure I’ll be betting him. Also, Desert Party is a surprising 26-1 (you have to love those odds), as bettors apparently are not crazy about his post. As expected, Friesan Fire is the 4-1 favorite over I Want Revenge at 5-1. Also getting some play is Papa Clem at 14-1.

Watch tomorrow for any updates in the column, as we get a better idea who the best bargains will be. But right now I’m still sticking with General Quarters, despite his sentiment-driven odds, and Desert Party as the best overlay at 26-1, despite his post.

Whether or not you pay any attention to these ramblings, don't forget about the best work/overall appearance (PIoneerof the Nile) and the slop and fitness factor (Friesan Fire) to include in any exotics.

This is more than a little awesome

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


Hot Rod Blagojevich is now Chicago Street art along the lines of Banksy's work. I couldn't be happier. You can read more about the street art here.

He was also offered an internship at a HookerHouse in Nevada. Aweshome.

This Is Kinda Awesome

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com

That artist does all the cover art for the DRF. His website his here.

Horse Racing Yoda Speaks

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


My title/headline is correct. Accept no substitutes. He talks, you listen. Or as Ludacris says, "Nicka, shut yo' ass up when you hear a pimp talk.". Same thing.

Let it be known that this guy is something special. He is better at his job that basically anyone else is at theirs. He revolutionized his profession 30 years ago, and is still the best at what he does. On top of all of that, it's plain to see he is a transcendentally intelligent individual just by reading his transcript. I just hope he gets a sculpture of his bust somewhere after he dies (not that he's close to that). He's great.

Here it is.

Da Bullsss: Pressure Breaks Things. But it Also Makes Diamonds.

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com

Couple quick thoughts about this game and game 7.

1. You Gaelics better hope that Rajon Rondo is ALLOWED to play by the NBA in game 7. That is one bush league bastard. Getting his Floyd Landis Cheat-to-win on in game 5 and then trying to throw the Bulls captain into the scorers table. Damn. The League had a HARD time not suspending his violent ass for game 6, good luck for game 7, Gaelics. Seriously, that is one cheating bastard. In the midwest we don't cheat to win, brah.

2. To Eddie House and Ray Allen: I learned in middle school basketball camp that THE worst shot in the game of basketball is a jumpshot with your feet on the three-point line. Apparently you had no idea. Your two shots in double and triple overtime (I think, I lost track) were terrible, stupid, hilarious and kept the series alive just long enough to put the pressure on you. Thanks for being cognitively inept!

3. As the title of this subject indicates- Pressure could have broken the Bulls, or could have forged them into a diamond. Thanks for letting them hang around long enough to believe.

4. Joakim Noah, I saw you put those nizuts on Paul Pierce's lamely facial haired face, in triple overtime to fould him out. I saw that.

5. The Gaelics looked Oooollllldddddd in the third overtime. And the second. And the first. Old. Old. Old. I was seeing "get 'em off of me, get 'em off of me!!!!" on their faces. Tired legs, lazy arm-fouls, frustrated decision making, quick shots. Wow. You old bastards are gonna sleep tonight.

6. Gaelics, who do you think the pressure is on in game 7? The defending champs who are at home after blowing a series, and should have put away a young team 2 games ago? Or the young team who is too young, stupid and inexperienced to care?

7. It's not that I think that the Gaelics are NOT a better team than the Bulls when they have Garnett, it's that I don't care.

8. Gaelic fans- don't act like you think Rondo deserves to play game 7 either. You know he's a dirty bastard who has to cheat to win. Just admit it.

9. Seriously, pronounce your nickname properly, "selltics". You borrowed a word from Ireland, then to "honor" them you mispronounce it?? Fucking morons. Who does that? Oh right, choking cheaters.

10. To quote Baby Gangsta of the Cash Money Crew, "Y'all don't want it wit us"

Am I Still Bitter About the Dodgers Sweeping the Cubs?

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com

Great photography. Tommy's FUPA sucks your eyes right in like a black hole. Looking good Tommy! I like the carefully crafted Martini-glass shape. I'm not gonna lie, I spent some time looking at it.

Talkin Derby: Is Regal Ransom Really my Derby Pick?

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


Here is Regal Ransom winning his last race, the 2009 UAE Derby where he holds off the favored stablemate, Desert Party.

This was the third meeting betwixt these two foes and Regal Ransom's first time getting the better of Desert Party.

There are a few things to like about Regal Ransom, and not just his price (30-1 morning line).

• His bulleted work on 4/25 at Churchill. He faster than the other 29 horses that attempted that distance that day, and three other Derby foes (including Desert Party).
• His work on 4/18 was 4th best of 28 that day, but was not bested by any Derby foes.
  
• His pedigree suggests he can win this one. Regal Ransom is half-brother to Funny Cide who won the 2003 Derby, and also half-brother to Flower Alley who won the 2006 Travers and was nosed in the Breeder's Cup Classic by Horse of the Year Saint Liam. Clearly, this family isn't afraid of a little distance over a dirt surface.
• He is one of two horses that are widely accepted by everyone to be on the lead at some point during the race. The other being the much less talented Join the Dance, who is thought to get out to the early lead, before relinquishing it to Regal Ransom somewhere toward the middle of the race.

Those are my main, bulleted points. He likes the local surface, appears to be in top form, he has the pedigree, and he is less likely to incur traffic problems than all of the favorites.

The way I see the race playing is very similar to how everyone else does, at least for the first mile. Something like this: After all the bunching chaos getting to the first turn, Join the Dance (from the 9 slot) will be in front, with Regal Ransom (from the 10) not far behind. They're the only two horse who appear, 1) to want to be on the lead, and 2) who have a post-position to be able to do so. So behind them is anyone's guess. It oughta be helter skelter behind them. The less-talented horses from the 1-5 slots will be clinging to the rail, hoping to save ground. Friesan Fire and Papa Clem from the respective 6 and 7 posts will be doing something similar, not trying to fan out too wide, but also not wanting to get shuffled back either. Mine that Bird from the 8th post may get left in the dust, paving the way for our friends Join the Dance and Regal Ransom to cut right to the front of the line from the 9 and 10 spots.

So that's the first, and inner-half of the horses as they break to the first turn. After them I expect the 11, 12 and 14 (Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and Atomic Rain, respectively) horses to sprint in along the rest and follow suit with all the horses to the inside. While you are probably thinking to yourself, "Ok, moron, I get it. Every horse sprints out to try to get a good spot along the rail. Duh." But I think Big Brown's performance last year changed the thinking of a lot of talented horses with outside posts- which we have a lot of this year, which I don't find to be a coincidence. When Big Brown won from the 20 post last year, he basically told the horses, "Ok guys, my talent towers over you all. The only way I lose is if one of you numskulls in front of me at the beginning boxes me in or cuts me off. If I have room, no one has a chance. The only way I can assure myself of that is to be in my own lane- 6 wide. So I'll beat you suckers from post 20 and not even try to get over toward the rail."

And surprisingly, he did just that.

So with the big names being in posts 13 (I Want Revenge), 15 (Dunkirk), and 16 (Pioneeer of the Nile), and to a lesser degree 19 (Desert Party), and emboldened by Big Brown's new Derby blueprint of success, I think those guys will all hang back, or hang outside I should say. They are gonna roam the outside like a pack of hungry cheetahs eyeing some gazelles and wait to pounce. But these are patient Cheetahs and they won't pounce until their prey get heavy legs, say around the quarter-pole.

This is where my theory differs from those of many others.

At the quarter-pole, most people see this pack of hellcats- IWR, Dunkirk, PON, and maybe DP all letting loose their run and picking off horses one by one until one member of that pack wins and possibly three of them completing the Trifecta, unless some other lucky scoundrel clunks up for third. In all honesty, that is also what I expect too. The problem though is a financial one. Those 4 horses, along with Friesan Fire and Hold Me Back, will the the 6 top betting interests. While I can't get excited about the traffic that FF and HMB will encounter, I also can't put much between the Cheetah Hellcats- IWR, Dunkirk, PON and DP. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if any of them won, or any combination of them finished or didn't finish in the money. So what should I do? Box the top 4 horses? No thank you. Especially not with such other juicy prices on the board.

So what DO we know? Regal Ransom is going to get a good, ground saving trip near the rail and he'll try and hold off (maybe FF) and the Cheetah Hellcats whom, some of them, may have gotten caught 5,6, or 7 wide around the entire track. These Hellcats are some of the most talented 3 year olds in the world, but freaks they are not. They'll have some heavy legs and some work left to do to catch our boy Regal Ransom.

Regal Handsome Ransom is my pick. As far as exotics go, I think you can just go shopping after that. Exacta choices including putting him above and/or below any of the Hellcats, maybe mixing in Papa Clem for a huge potential score.

********************************************************************

Q: What if that scenario doesn't pan out? What if the first half of my race prediction is 100% correct, but Regal Ransom just comes up empty and gets swallowed up by the hellcats with 5/16ths of a mile left? Then who wins?

A: Again, that one is anyone's guess. You know who it WON'T be. The tosses are: West Side Bernie, Musket Man, Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, Mine That Bird, Join the Dance, General Quarters, Atomic Rain, Summer Rain, Nowhere to Hide, and Flying Private. That is 11/20 of the horses. Then of course, the premise of this question asserts that Regal Ransom is out of the money. So that's 12/20 gone.

That leaves: Hold me Back, Chocolate Candy and Papa Clem who I BARELY didn't include in the "toss" pile, they have only slightly more than 0% chance of winning. So that's 15/20 who just aren't gonna win. Who does that leave? You guessed it. Desert Party, Friesan Fire and the Hellcats. The only value in that would be to have Deserty Party on top, which is possible but coming from the 19 post, and asking him to run past Dunkirk, IWR and PON is a tall order. So then who do you like? The three favorites, or FF who will have miserable traffic, and may need a clear path, mud AND a killer pace to win?

So if you think/agree it will come down to the top three favorites it's STILL hard to put anything between them. As I've said before, you can't just box those three in trifecta or exacta, and call it a betting day.

*********************************************************

Q: If RR or a Hellcat doesn't win, who will?

Here's a visual hint:

A: Desert Party. Or maaaybe Friesan Fire. Apart from RR and the Triumverate of Hellcats, I don't think anyone has a chance, except MAYBE Papa Clem. I like Desert Party more than I like Friesan Fire, but I think Friesan Fire has a great running style to win a Derby. FF offers far less value, and again, I think he'll have a nightmare trip.

************************************************************

Q: So who is the best Hellcat?

A: I hate to say it, but probably I Want Revenge. Granted, that's not taking a huge stand because his odds reflect that. He just has so many fewer question marks than the others, and that distinguishes him from the field for me. Chief among those distinctions is that he has had dirt kicked in his face in a Grade 1 AND he has won that race. Not say fast, Pioneer of the Nile, I said "dirt kicked in his face" not "synthetic running surface kicked in his face". Which brings me to my final question
****************************************************

Q: If every horse magically gets a perfect trip and they all run to the best of their potential on dirt at this distance, who wins?

A: Dunkirk.

***************************************************

Q: Do you have a lucky t-shirt that you wear to big horse races? Specifically, a shirt that you took after the 2004 Travers when, after a race in torrential downpour 3 drunk kids (and the only three people watching the race on the rail) took their shirts off, hopped the fence and ran onto the track, appearing briefly on ESPN behind the winner's circle then were arrested, and upon seeing them get arrested you realized that they wouldn't be coming back to claim their discarded shirt, so you went down in the downpour to grab a salmon-colored shirt from a newly arrested drunken degenerate?

A: Funny you should ask. I do have a shirt obtained by those means. It appears below.

T.R. Salutes: Tom Durkin- UPDATED

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


He's a horse racing announcer for Saratoga, Belmont, and (I think still) Aqueduct. I think he still does the KY Derby and he has done the Breeder's Cup for several years but didn't renew his contract to do so starting in like 2005. It's probably better that I stop winging it and let you read his Wikipedia profile. The point is, he's awesome. Not that it is surprising, since he's from Chicago.

He's a consummate professional, though rarely consummates his relationships with other professionals while he is working, especially while eating consumme. His knowledge of the sport is extensive, and he always manages to mix in just enough silliness when necessary, to remind us all that we are watching horse racing for the purpose of having fun.

Since I don't know a whole lot about the guy, so my salutation of him will have to be primarily via YouTube replays of his most memorable calls. In a way, I feel sheepish about posting these because they're basically his funniest moments, and he doesn't fancy himself any kind of comedian. After decades of flawless announcing these moments of whimsy are anamolies, but memorable and likable all the same.

9/5/09 UPDATEUPDATE: We have an unprecedented INSTANT CLASSIC. This is Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward from 9/5/09. You can read more about the race here.



UPDATE: I TOTALLY forgot about this one and it's in my top 3 favorite of his calls. The 2004 Belmont Stakes where the horse racing world was positive that Smarty Jones was going to win the triple crown and everyone was cheering him on. He was a feel-good story for a lot of reasons and everyone was thoroughly prepared to explode with delight. I was at that race that day, the attendance was 120,000 which broke the previous record of 100,000. If I recall correctly, as I always do, that was the day Ronald Regan died. Anyway, you can hear in Durkin's voice how exuberant he is when it looks like Smarty will win ("..it's been 26 years...."), and how crestfallen he is when he utters, "...Birdstone wins the Belmont Stakes." This and the call in the last clip of the bunch are masterpieces of race calling, and of letting your human-side into your voice, but not your comments.




Arrr


A horse with a stupidly long name


"No need to call it" a good example of a less humorous call, but one that illustrates his appreciation for the sport.


Durkin's memorable call of a VERY foggy race. This couldn't have been done any better.


He was in fine voice for a horse named Doremifasolatido


Ohnoitsmymothernlaw- Good race, funny call.


Finally is my favorite sports announcing job ever, and it was done by Mr. Durkin. Allow me to put this race in context for you. The race is the Breeder's Cup Classic which is the biggest horse race of the year, monetarily, in North America. Horses come from all over the world for this race, and this is the one race every single trainer wants to win. Also note that it was on 10/27/2001, making it the first major sporting event after 9/11. While baseball and football regular season vailiantly played immediately after 9/11, those were regular season games. No major sport had had a post season yet, and the Breeder's Cup is like the entire playoffs in one day, culminating in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Furthering the patriotic undertones, several of the favorites for this race were European horses, with Tiznow being America's hope, basically. Tizow won this race last year, and if he could somehow manage to upset the favored European invaders, he would become the first horse to repeat as winner of the BC Classic. Oh, I forget to mention that this race took place in Belmont Park, a track located in New York City. It was almost the horse-racing vesion of Rocky against Drago, but on American soil. I think you'll find that Tiznow showed determination of Balboan proportion in the race as well. Here is Tom Durkin's call, my favorite call in the history of sports. Tiznow is wearing pink.

More News of Boston U. Being Lame-o

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com

First a deal with the devil, now this.

The Wall Street Journal just ran an article about some of the cruel and unusual Acceptance and Denila letters colleges send out to applicants. Obviously, Boston University does theirs stupidly.


Most Discouraging: Boston University. To students who have family ties to the university, its letter begins: "We give special attention to applicants whose families have a tradition of study at Boston University. We have extended this consideration in the evaluation of your application, but I regret to inform you that we are unable to offer you admission." Consideration of family legacies is common practice at many universities. But Rob Flaherty, 17, a North Reading, Mass., recipient, said he felt the wording in BU's letter translated to "we made it even easier for you and you STILL couldn't get in." Admissions head Kelly Walter says BU tries to deliver such bad news "with as much sensitivity as possible." Most applicants appreciate an acknowledgement of their family ties, she says, and she regrets that "our efforts fall short with some.


Great job BU.

Zenyatta is Back.

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


I wrote last year that she Aint Nuthin' to Eff With. Then I correctly predicted that she'd win the Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic, and she makes her 2009 Debut on Friday at Churchill Downs. I wish she were racing in the Kentucky Oaks against Rachel Alexandra, but I'll take what I can get. She might be the best female horse ever.

Talking Derby: Link Dump

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


Since I have a lot of research to do before the Derby now that my future's exactas are rubbish, I figured I'd pass along what I'm reading. It's worth noting, and I think you'll read it a few times if you read all these links, that Derby workouts sometimes foretell the winners. You'll read that Barbaro and Street Sense's worked leapt off the track and screamed "I'm going to win!" to the likes of Steve Haskin and Mike Welsch. Big Brown didn't have any off-the-charts works, but was the best horse by far, and his win was not shocking. So we'll be on the lookout for any jumps off the page of course, but we'll also be looking for any works that seem to defy a horse's poor odds. Last year Denis of Cork went off at 27-1, but finished third. I was not nearly as surprised by this as were many others, not because I detected this on anything I read in his Past Performances, but because I read Haskin oogling his recent Churchill works.

Another thing to think about when handicapping this race is where the pace will come from? Quality Road was the presumed pacesetter in this race, or at least the class of the speedsters. Now that he is gone every other favored horse will be in the same spot in the race- coming from just off the pace. There are no legitimate speedsters and no legitimate deep closers, only stalkers. Being difficult to differentiate between the stalkers, and financially, lacking any incentive to, it may be worth looking for a longshot to go wire-to-wire. IF a long shot wins, I think he'll do so leading throughout the race and getting away with slow fractions, and still having enough stank in the tank to fend off the late running stalkers. I can't foresee a 30-1 shot out kicking Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Pioneer of the Nile and Desert Party, but I could see one getting loose on the lead end fending them off like happened in the 2008 Arlington Million. So far I think only Regal Ransom has that capability, but I'll be looking for more. It may also happen that a stalking-style horse is sent to the lead and surprises everyone. Pace makes the race, so deciphering that is square one.


The Derby Field

Derby contender Past Performances (this was done before the field was drawn. So the Post Positions are not listed and not every horse listed is running. If you use this, you'll have to cross-reference it with the above link).

This chat transcript from last night They will have another chat on Wednesday and on Thursday will have one with Andrew Beyer, who is basically the Yoda of handicapping.


Wednesday's chat (here's the transcript) is with this guy, that the NYT did a piece on. Untrue to NYT form, this article is not 87 pages long. It's one webpage long, informative and good. Short, sweet, but complete.

Steve Haskin's Derby Report. If you've ever wondered why I call him the Bob Ross of Horse racing, you'll see why here. Its how he describes the horse's strides, body language and their coat. The "human" element of the horses themselves as animals is what makes horse racing unique. Gotta love it.

Same goes for his Derby Dozen report as of 4/27

DRF's EIC Steve Crist showing why he's among the very best.

This is me After Quality Road's Defection

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com

That's a self portrait. I took the pic myself after my makeover. I thought if I denied QR's Derby Defection long enough that he would eventually run in the Derby. Turns out that was incorrect. He is not running.

While I knew there was a legitimate chance he wouldn't be running, I didn't bother to approach the race as if he were NOT running. I'm going to do that in the next day or two and get my findings posted.

Dear Rondo, if you Like Your Girlish Face, Do NOT Come Into the Lane in Game 6

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


Rajon,

You are going to get BLOWN THE FUCK UP in the paint on Thursday by Tyrus Thomas. They may even bring in Aaron Gray to lay the wood on you then get meaninglessly ejected. Yesterday I was telling friends that you needed to get fouled hard in game 5, and it never happened. After taking the cowardly way out in OT of Game 5, you may as well wear a helmet in Game 6. The boys on Madison Avenue are gonna love making you a spot on the floor.

Have fun!

T.R. Slyder

P.S. I am sure you purchased and wear this bracelet often: The Floyd Landis "Cheat to Win" bracelet

Susan Boyle has Swine Flu!!!!

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


I just felt like combining the two things I'm most sick of hearing. As far as I know she does not have swine flu.

Does anyone else think of "when pigs fly" when they hear "swine 'flew'"? I kinda do.

This Commercial Rubs me the Right way

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com

What's up Ryan? Apparently Ryan is not going anywhere for a while.




Oops.

I Hope You Like Dudeity

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com

For the first time in my blogging career I'm posting a NSFW video that contains dudeity. A naked dude at Coachella refuses to put his clothes on and winds up getting tasered.

To paraphrase my friend's dad's favorite joke- I'm a little surprised he's getting arrested for public indecency since there appears to be a lack of evidence.


Naked Wizard Tased By Reality from Tracy Anderson on Vimeo.

Talking Derby: Plagarizing Steve Crist

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


Taken from here

Crist Blog | April 22, 2009

Early Pickin's

I don't have to make my 1-2-3 picks for the Derby Day newspaper until a week from tonight, but I'm already pretty sure who the three horses will be: Dunkirk, I Want Revenge and Quality Road, though not necessarily in that order.

Go ahead, call me a chalk-eating weasel. I know they're three of the five favorites, but I just think they're not only the best horses out there but also good enough that they've separated themselves from the rest. My feeling 10 days out is that all three would have to misfire for someone else to wear the roses.

If I were making out a Derby Day pick-6 or pick-4 ticket, they'd be my three A's. At the moment I'm not loving anyone else enough to have any B's. My C's would be Friesan Fire and Pioneerofthenile, out of slightly grudging respect for their records and their handlers; I'll probably talk myself into one more backup, some crazy longshot, if only because it seems you're obliged to like one crazy longshot in the Derby.

While I feel obliged to use Friesan Fire and Pioneerof the Nile defensively as win candidates, I'm also willing to play against both of them in the intrarace exotics. While both of them are obviously talented and admirably consistent, Friesan Fire's only fast race was on a sloppy track, and Pioneerof the Nile has never raced on dirt. I have no quarrel with the opinion of clockers that POTN is training superbly on dirt at Churchill, but I seem to recall that's what everyone was saying about Curlin before he tried a synthetic track for the first time in last year's BC Classic. You just don't know until they race on it. To speculate that Pioneerof the Nile will not only handle dirt as well as synth, but also improve several lengths, I'd want at least double his likely odds of around 8-1.

Some may say it's folly to be coming to conclusions this far out: What about final workouts, and the post-position draw, and listening to other people's opinions, and watching more replays and studying more charts? We'll all do all that, and enjoy it, but I'd be surprised if my opinion changes radically. I have no longstanding loyalties to anyone in the race, no future wagers, no weekly Top 10 Picks List to justify my selections against. May the best horse win, and here's hoping that turns out to be one of my three -- preferably, whichever one I end up putting on top.

Happy Birthday Strunk and White

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com

The NY Times did a little piece on The Elements of Style yesterday to commemorate its 50th anniversary.