My $.03 Regarding the Derby Preps.

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


I'll just lay my cards right on the table. I made a Derby futures Exacta bet, and I can't help but see the race through that lens. Here's what I have.

18 Exactas with Quality Road on top, and 2 exactas with him on the bottom. Here are my bets with their will-pays. (all exactas have Quality Road on top, so I'll just list the place horse and the dollar amount it will pay for a $2 bet)

1. Charitable Man- $814
2. Chocolate Candy- 287
3. Desert Party- 233
4. Dunkirk- 104
5. Friesan Fire- 71
6. Hold Me Back- 554
7. I Want Revenge- 51
8. Mafaaz 937
9. Musket Man- 380
10. Old Fashioned- 162
11. Papa Clem- 1,016
12. Pioneer of the Nile- 107
13. Regal Ransom- 438
14. Terrain- 1,034
15. (ThePamplemousse- 231) will not be in Derby (that was not the case when I bet him)
16. (Theregoesjojo- 438)- unlikely to be in the Derby
17. Win Willy- 203
18. Any other horse not listed- 203.

finally, two other exactas with Quality Road on the bottom

1. Friesan Fire/Quality Road- $84
2. Hold Me Back/Quality Road- $739

let the record show that I made a mistake when betting the Hold Me Back/Quality Road exacta. I meant to bet I Want Revenge on top and just told the woman at the ticket window the wrong number. So I guess we'll see how that pans out.


Anyway, now that that's out of the way. I was happy to see how the Arkansas Derby panned out: Papa Clem won. I need him to 1) be in the Derby, and, 2) Be running well so he can come in seocond. He is my second-highest payout, so that's great news to me.

I didn't feel that anyone in the Arkansas Derby was a real Derby contender. As mentioned in an earlier posting, I feel that race was just a cash-grab for horses who weren't yet eligible for the Derby, but hoped to beat some low-quality horses quickly and then be deby-eligible as a result.

The odds-on favorite of the Arkansas Derby, Old Fashioned, didn't muster a win, but he did muster a shitting of the bed. I'm not even sure his connections will enter him in the Derby (he is eligible) after his putrid performances hin his last two races. It's tough to argue that he is not a sprinter at this point. Talented horse, not a lover of the Derby distance.

Oh, after writing that paragraph I checked on the DRF.com, and saw that Old Fashioned is out due to an injury. He won't be in the Derby for sure. I wish that horse all the best.

As for the other major Derby Prep, The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland: General Quarters won the race. I'd never heard of him either. He beat the favored Hold Me Back (who I accidentally had on top in one of my exactas) by a length and a half and is now Derby bound, possibly displacing the very exciting Dunkirk. What a dick.

The Blue Grass also featured a few other Derby implications, but I don't really care about talking about them. One reason is because it's overkill and I know that none of my zero readers like horse racing. The other is that this race was run on a Synthetic surface, so none of it necessarily matters anyway. It skews the definition of "Derby Implications".