My 2010 Ky Derby Analysis

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter

update: check out how crazy the odds will be tomorrow when betting opens on derby day


I expect a pace meltdown and the winner to be passing horses later than in most KY Derbys. I am basically taking the horses I feel are, 1. Not speed horses, 2. capable of running a 98-105 Beyer, 3. Have won from off the lead before, 4. Can reasonably assume he/she will like the distance and the possibility of a wet track, and finally, 5. Have done #s 1-4 on a dirt track at some point.

Additionally, as with most KY Derbys, I am not conceding in a 20 horse field a LOT can go wrong for ANY horse and the best horse does not always win. With that in mind, I wanted to use a few different horses to increase my coverage. When you are positive where the fish are, you use a fishing pole, and when you think you have an idea where a few might be you use a net. I am using a net and saying, "I'm not positive who will do what, but my guess is that two of these 6 horses will do something good.".

Is my net of 6 of 20 horses bordering on embarrassingly large? Yeah, kinda.

Handicapping:

That narrowing down left me with 6 horses:

1 Lookin at Lucky
10 Paddy O'Prado (admittedly violates rule #5, but I liked his work over a sloppy Churchill)
13 Jackson Bend
14. Mission Impazible
16. Awesome Act
20. Sidney's Candy

After that I rank them in the Steve Crist-ian way of assigning the horses I think are most likely to win with a category of A, then for horses I find slightly less likely to a win a B, and so on with C.

My A horses were- 1, 14, 16
B 10, 20
C 13

Betting:

27 Straight Exactas using the aforementioned horses.

1 with 10, 13, 14, 16, 20- 5 bets total (AA AA AB AB AC)
10 with 1, 13, 14, 16, 20- 5 bets total (BA BC BA BA BB)
13 with 1, 14, 16 - 3 bets total (CA CA CA)
14 with 1, 10, 13, 16, 20 - 5 bets total (AA AA AB AB AC)
16 with 1, 10, 16, 14, 20 - 5 bets total (AA AA AB AB AC)
20 with 1, 10, 14, 16- 4 bets total (BA BB BA BA)

Horses that I wanted to use but didn't because you can't bet every horse, but omitting them from my bet still frightens me a bit:

Ice Box- loves the distance, and I like his local work on the slop on 4/23 an awful lot, but I think may be a one hit wonder with his FL Derby win. It doesn't take Derby winners four tries to break their maiden.

Stately Victor- seems to be the wiseguy horse as of late. Loved his dad but I also think he may be a one hit wonder. If he were destined to win the KY Derby I wonder why 0 of his last 3 starts were over a dirt surface and two were Allowance races. Most Derby winners have a more impressive resume heading into the derby.

Devil May Care- plenty to like, but there are too many question marks for me: going against boys for the first time- 19 of them, to be precise; she gets blinkers for the first time since she wore them in the Breeder's Cup and got humiliated by a field of 12 females.

Undercard:

I don't think I will wind up playing the undercard any, but I had entertained the idea of playing a few pick 3s. I handicapped the undercard a bit and for the following races I'd use the following:

Race 6: 2
Race 7: 5
Race 8: 2, 3, 6, 10
Race : 7, 12
Race 10: 6,2






That's how I roll.