Using my two Favorite Techniques to Analyze Rachel Alexandra's Chance in the Woodward- Plagiarism and Primates

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter

I was thinking about monkeys again last night. But I also kept thinking about the Steve Haskin article on BloodHorse.com that I linked to in my previous Rachel Alexandra/Woodward post; he made some really good points that concerned me. So I thought I'd break his article down paragraph by paragraph and kinda translate it for my readers that maybe aren't as versed in horse racing jargon as they are other languages- like Monkey Language, for instance.


Here is Haskin's first paragraph:

Rachel Alexandra drew post 3 for Saturday’s $750,000 Woodward Stakes (gr. I). No big deal, you say? By breaking close to the rail, and with a big bruiser in the aptly named Bullsbay drawing directly inside her in post 2 and a speedy Nick Zito-trained stalker, Cool Coal Man, directly outside her in post 4, a scenario is developing where Rachel could find herself in some heavy traffic at different stages of the race.

To monkeyify getting stuck betwixt Bullsbay and Cool Coal Man:



Haskin's next paragraph:

When you see Zito put in two tactical speed horses against a heavy favorite who has the same running style as his horses, you can bet he has an agenda, meaning Da' Tara, breaking from the rail and coming off a bullet :47 flat work on the Oklahoma training track, likely will bust out of the gate to assure Rachel will not get an easy lead in case that strategy was to enter Calvin Borel’s mind. If Rachel takes off the pace, she will have Cool Coal Man, It's a Bird, and Past the Point all in a position to pin her down on the rail behind Da’ Tara, meaning there is a decent chance she could wind up in a neat little box by the time they hit the backstretch.

Watch out for possible bunching, grouping, crowding, boxing, etc.:

crowding....... .....boxing














Haskin's third paragraph:

Sitting back, waiting to see how the race unfolds, will be Asiatic Boy and Macho Again, both tough, battle-tested closers. Now, remember, this is merely a possible scenario based on how the race is shaping up. But it surely is one to be wary of.

Two combatants waiting until others put their cards on the table, then playing their own hands accordingly:



















Haskin's 4th paragraph:

The bottom line, this is not a race or a field to be taken lightly. These older horses are more formidable than people think, at least on any given day. Each has shown they have a big race in them, including Past the Point, who gave Curlin quite a scare at 40-1 in last year’s Woodward. Bullsbay and Cool Coal Man each are coming off a 107 Beyer at Saratoga; It’s a Bird ran a 107 Beyer two races back; Macho Again is coming off a 105 Beyer; and Past the Point ran a 110 Beyer in last year’s Woodward.


Be wary of assassins:



Haskin's 5th paragraph:

Before anyone starts getting depressed over this unsettling scenario, the intention here is not to suggest Rachel is going to get beat, but it is Saratoga and it is a 3-year-old filly against older males, and Borel is going to have a bulls-eye on his back and must constantly be aware of everything going on around him and any plots developing during the running of the race, especially the first half-mile. Just remember how they ganged up on poor Stewart Elliott and Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I).


Borel's in need of vigilance: It won't be a day at the beach for Calvin Borel, that's for sure. Heck, even if it were a day at the beach, he'd still want to stay vigilant.




But he'd probably want to be even more vigilant than that. Too bad he couldn't have another pair of eyes looking out for Rachel.


(Answer: I'm pretty sure you can't. It'd be tough to do that and stay within the weight requirement. But good thinking!)

Haskin's 6th paragraph:

Of course, we’re dealing with a filly who could prove to be as great as any who ever lived and who most likely will not be fazed in the slightest by any tactics the other riders might employ. But it is something to think about. If Rachel is able to escape any ambushes and booby traps early on and gets a clear run, then it will all be up to her to show what she can do against these big, tough ol’ boys.

Let's not forget that Rachel Alexandra knows how to kick hiney:



And finally, Haskin's final paragraph:


Asiatic Boy, for example, has won or placed in grade I stakes on three continents. If you’re looking for a horse who can’t bear the thought of getting beat by a 3-year-old filly it’s one named Macho. Bullsbay is a bull and he’s a bay and last weighed in at over 1,230 pounds. It’s a Bird possesses the magic name “Bird” that has been soaring all year in major stakes, and his name just happens to be the opening line to the introduction of Superman. Yep, this is a tough bunch.

The competition is strong:



Steve Haskin made some great points and painted a very believable picture of a scenario that a lot of people simply didn't envision. It wouldn't take a freak occurence for Rachel Alexandra to get beat on Saturday. Sometimes in horse racing the field teams up on the big favorite- maybe one horse (like maybe Da' Tara) sprints out faster than he ordinarily would, ostensibly sacrificing his own chances at victory just for the sake of bothering the favorite (Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey relished doing just that when he wasn't aboard the favorite). Then, the very instant after the sprinter is turned away by the favorite, a closer (like maybe Asiatic Boy or Macho Again) might start his run a bit earlier than he'd like, and take on the favorite- almost as though he and the faded sprinter are in a relay race against the favorite. As soon as one horse gets tired, he passes the baton off to the next horse. Now it's his turn to make sure that the favorite stays harried and never gets any chance to catch his (or her) breath. Maybe the big favorite digs in and heroically kicks away from the early closer with his (or her) last ounce of effort, only to be nipped at the wire from the VERY deep closer (like m aybe Asiatic Boy or Macho Again) who came from out of nowhere, and is the benefactor of the group effort.


Really, it's a lot like the last scene of Scarface, with all of those would-be assassins taking their shot at Tony Montana, and all of them getting killed one-by-one, at least at first. And when it appears the tide is starting to turn in favor of the assassins what happens? Tony says, "So you wanna play rough, huh? Ok. Say hello to my li'l Fr'en'!" and #@**POW**@#, that threat is over with a boom and a cloud of smoke. After that, Tony thinks he can let his guard down. That's when The Skull calmly creeps up behind Tony and gets his man without even breaking a sweat. You set 'em up, he'll knock 'em down. Sure, some people lost but the team won.


There is a pretty decent chance that a similar pack-mentality will develop on Saturday- it certainly wouldn't be the first time that has happened to the big favorite in a big race. But there's also a pretty decent chance Rachel Alexandra will win by open lengths and leave us all stupified with mouths agape. I'm not sure which it will be.

Either way, it will be a great....




spectacle.







I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.