(pictured above is my Derby favorite, Quality Road as a baby. Note that he is standing what appears to be a quality road. Crazy, huh?)
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
I've got some odds and ends to mention.
1. Old Fashioned was just retired.
2. Terrain will be running in the Derby. TR Slyder scholars will recall that he was my highest will-pay exacta-mate with Quality Road at $1,034. That leaves Papa Clem as the new highest will pay with QR at $1,016.
3. Another Derby defection means better odds for my homey Dunkirk to get into the Derby. Let's have a look at the earnings list, shall we?
4. Sorry, I insist. And again, the top 20 are Derby-eligible.
| Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings for Major Contenders (through 04/13/09) | |||
| 1 | Mafaaz | John Gosden | N/A |
| 2 | Regal Ransom | Saeed bin Suroor | $1,200,000 |
| 3 | Pioneer of the Nile | Bob Baffert | $1,193,250 |
| 4 | Square Eddie | Doug O'Neill | $774,981 |
| 5 | I Want Revenge | Jeff Mullins | $774,000 |
| 6 | Papa Clem | Gary Stute | $760,000 |
| 7 | Desert Party | Saeed bin Suroor | $641,667 |
| 8 | Quality Road | James Jerkens | $600,000 |
| 8 | General Quarters | Thomas McCarthy | $595,645 |
| 10 | Friesan Fire | Larry Jones | $570,465 |
| 11 | Musket Man | Derek Ryan | $485,000 |
| 12 | Terrain | Albert Stall, Jr. | $448,330 |
| 13 | Hold Me Back | William Mott | $438,000 |
| 14 | West Side Bernie | Kelly Breen | $385,160 |
| 15 | Chocolate Candy | Jerry Hollendorfer | $370,000 |
| 16 | Win Willy | McLean Robertson | $230,000 |
| 17 | Giant Oak | Chris Block | $169,256 |
| 18 | Dunkirk | Todd Pletcher | $150,000 |
| 19 | Charitable Man | Kiaran McLaughlin | $150,000 |
| 20 | Flying Private | D. Lukas | $124,000 |
| 21 | Mr. Hot Stuff | Eoin Harty | $114,000 |
| 22 | Summer Bird | Tim Ice | $100,000 |
| 23 | Join in the Dance | Todd Pletcher | $90,000 |
| 24 | Just a Coincidence | Nicholas Zito | $75,000 |
| 25 | Hello Broadway | Barclay Tagg | $63,860 |
| 26 | Jeranimo | Michael Pender | $24,000 |
So that moves Dunkirk up to 17th/18th with basically, with 3 races left for the currently-left-out horses to try and win some quick cash. Most horses running will be horses that are ranked 21st and higher, since most eligible horses are opting not to race this close to the Derby. Conversely, the more a horse races, the higher the chances are that something can go wrong and send him off the derby trail. So we'll just have to wait and see about Dunkirk.
With the above list in mind, we'll take a look at Steve Haskins' latest installment of his Derby Dozen. You may notice that Mr. Haskins has listed two horses in the #12 slot. He must do some freelance baking, thereby authorizing him to utilize the baker's dozen. I'm sure whatever he bakes is delicious.
Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen
Updated: April 13th
1. I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins, Stephen Got Even—Meguial, by Roy
He's arrived at Churchill Downs for what promises to be an interesting two weeks leading up to the Derby. People are still talking about his Wood Memorial adventure, and at this point he looks like your Derby favorite.
2. Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert. Empire Maker—Star of Goshen, by Lord At War
He keeps being flattered by his vanquished foes' performances back east. Now all he has to do is go out there and show he's as good on dirt as they are. We should get some kind of clue from his Churchill works.
3. Quality Road Jimmy Jerkens. Elusive Quality—Kobla, by Strawberry Road
His quarter crack problem at this point looks to be behind him after a solid :48 3/5 work. Let's keep our fingers crossed. Jerkens will give him one more work about a week before the Derby, then ship to Kentucky four days out.
4. Dunkirk Todd Pletcher. Unbridled’s Song—Secret Status, by A.P. Indy
The results from the past two weeks could not have worked out better for him, and he should have no problem making the Derby field. Thoro-Graph shows him pairing up negative 3/4's, which makes him a major threat.
5. Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer. Candy Ride—Crownette, by Seattle Slew
He's on a strong pattern and Hollendorfer has him primed for a peak performance on Derby Day. But again, he still has to duplicate or improve his form on dirt. Only General Quarters will have more starts going into the Derby.
6. Friesan Fire Larry Jones. A.P. Indy—Bollinger, by Dehere
He is now Larry Jones' only hope following the injury to Old Fashioned. Once again, there's not much you can say about him, going into the race off a 7-week layoff and no 1 1/8 miles races. But Jones is confident that's the way to go. Look for some big works from him.
7. Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor. Street Cry—Sage Cat, by Tabasco Cat
With the Derby shaping up to be one of the deepest and most contentious in years, one way to eliminate confusion is to go to the horse who has existed all year in a different realm from the others and take a shot he's for real. He arrived early enough to acclimate and should be coming into the race in peak form.
8. General Quarters Tom McCarthy. Sky Mesa—Ecology, by Unbridled's Song
There is no denying this is a serious horse who is peaking at the right time, can handle any kind of surface, and should have no problem with the 10 furlongs. His tactical speed and ability to be placed anywhere make him dangerous. Will Coa go with him or his Tampa rival Musket Man?
9. Hold Me Back Bill Mott. Giant’s Causeway—Restraint, by Unbridled’s Song
Any fans of his before the Blue Grass should still be fans after his strong runner-up performance, trying to close off a dawdling pace. He did come home his last eighth in :11 4/5. He was expected to regress slightly off his big comeback victory and now is ready for a big effort. Only question mark is the one dirt blot on his record.
10. Musket Man Derek Ryan. Yonaguska--Fortuesque, by Fortunate Prospect
The only reason he's behind General Quarters, despite having beaten him two out of three times at Tampa, is the difference in pedigree. While it looks like he'll continue to outrun his pedigree, his rival is almost a sure thing to stay. But it's hard to like one without the other. This is a potent Tampa one-two punch.
11. Papa Clem Gary Stute. Smart Strike—Miss Houdini, by Belong to Me
No one was expecting him to rally from fifth in a race with only one true speed horse, but he showed a whole new dimension, aided by Old Fashioned's fast pace and a slow 1:03 come-home time for the final five furlongs. Third horse was coming off only two lifetime starts and recent maiden score, in which he earned a 78 Beyer, and was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths for all the money. So, it's hard to get a good gauge on this race.
12.West Side Bernie Kelly Breen.Bernstein—Time Honored, by Gilded Time
He merits respect off his second-place finish to I Want Revenge in Wood Memorial, and he should be coming into the Derby in top form. But this is an exceptionally strong field with several closers more explosive than him.
12. Win Willy McLean Robertson Monarchos—City Fair, by Carson City
Sorry, once again I can't separate the bottom two. Although he didn't run badly in Arkansas, more was expected of him, and having a recent maiden winner with only two lifetime starts out-close him wasn't what you wanted to see. But a regression off a big effort going two turns for the first time wasn't that surprising; deserves another chance.
Lastly, I'll post Mike Watchmaker's Top Ten 3-year olds. This list is slightly different because he ranks all three year olds, whether they are in training or not (e.g. retired, deceased, etc.)., and disregards whether they are heading to the Derby or not. Here is his list as of April, 8th.
1 - I Want Revenge (5)
A major revelation since moving to dirt
2 - Quality Road (1)
Handled 2 turns, a top rival in Fl. Derby
3 -Dunkirk (2)
Might be every bit as good as top two
4 - Friesan Fire
How much did slop help in La. Derby?
5 - The Pamplemousse (3)
6 - Pioneerof the Nile (7)
7 - Old Fashioned
8 - Hold Me Back (10)
9 - Chocolate Candy (new)
10 - Musket Man (new)
So it looks like Watchmaker has Pioneer of the Nile ranked much lower, as well as Chocolate Candy. I tend to agree more with Watchmaker. The rationale employed by Haskins is more historical- since Pioneer of the Nile beat I Want Revenge twice a while ago, and Papa Clem once, (on a synthetic surface) he must be pretty impressive. While, Watchmaker feels that Pioneer of the Nile had the advantage since they raced on a surfaces that IWR and PC relatively dislike, and when they meet on dirt, IWR will humiliate PoN.
So that's like if LeBron James' 30 year old cousin said that when he was 20, and Lebron was 11, he used trounce LeBron in 1-in-1. But since LeBron is now arguably the best player in the world, LeBron's cousin also has to be in the discussion for best player as well, since he beat him a couple of times a while ago.
Point being, Quality Road is the best. And Papa Clem is second best.
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