Big Derby Prep Race to be on ESPN This Saturday

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


The Florida Derby, the best Derby Prep race to date will be on ESPN from 5-6 ET on Saturday, 3/28. Now we're getting into the mid-to-late stages of Derby prep races, which means that good horses will start running against one another instead of avoiding eachother. It's kind of like the middle rounds of the NCAA tournament- where #1 seeds play #4 seeds, and you have a matchup that's actually good, instead of seeing one good team humiliate an inferior team.

Saturday's Florida Derby features three horses to get excited about: Dunkirk (pictured above), Quality Road, and Theregoesjojo.

Dunkirk




Abovemost is his first race, below that is his second race. He is by far the most intriguing of the group. In 2007 he was the most expensive yearling (i.e. one year old) purchased at auction for the entire year- at $3.7 million. He didn't race at all as a 2-year old (only two Derby winners were unraced at 2) and is 2-for-2 in his starts this year. He was the favorite in both races in which he ran, and won impressively in both, as you'll see. So the story on him is that he has all the potential in the world but has yet to beat any competitive horses. Most directly in his way is....

Quality Road



Above is his latest, and by far most impressive race. Regardless of how you think it compares visually to Dunkirk's impressive wins, it should be known that Quality Road beat a litany of very qualified horses in that race. He went off at 6-1, and that was his third race. It looked like he got a great ride from his very talented jockey and then had the talent to ride to the wire in the lead. The only knock on him is that he may have ran so quickly and been so finely-tuned for that race, that he may not have as much stank in the tank for this Saturday's race. That could be the case, or it could be that that was the first race of a super horse. What that a trend or an aberration? Will he be a one hit wonder? The next horse in this race worth taking a closer look at is the horse that finished right behind him that race.....


Theregoesjojo

The race you saw Quality Road win was the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February, 28th. However, what you didn't hear was that just one month prior to that race, in an allowance race on January 10th, Theregoesjojo beat Quality road by nearly three lengths. (Quality Road beat Theregoesjojo by 4 lengths in the Fountain of Youth). So the question here then is- who will win the rubber match? Is Theregoesjojo the better horse, and just got off to a slow start in the Fountain of Youth? Or did he get lucky on 1/10? Even if he is better than Quality Road, can he hold off the regally bred Dunkirk?

*Queue the music* Dun Dun DDuunnnnnn. We'll have to tune in Saturday to find out.

My prediction is that Dunkirk will win because his second race was ran at a mile and an 8th, which is what the distance will be on Saturday. Quality Road's win took place at only a mile. The difference may sound negligble for horses, but it actually does matter quite a bit. Quality Road's win was very impressive to be sure, but Dunkirk looks like he can be driven like a car and it didn't look as though he even tried to win either race, despite having horrible trips (being 6 wide during turns in each race). It's also wishful thinking because I want Dunkirk to win because he'll be undefeated and will maybe draw some media attention that only undefeated horses can (like Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown). I want him to be an unbeatable freak superhorse. But realistically, I would not be surprised at all if either of the other two horses soundly defeated him.

Thickening the plot (or, boring you even further) is that this will be Dunkirk's last race before the Kentucky Derby. Which may not sound like a big deal, but it actually is. Only the top 20 Graded Stakes (i.e. very good races) earning horses are eligible to be in the Derby. Graded Stakes just means "top tier" races. Quality Road beat Theregoesjojo in a "Graded Stake" race, so they both earned a good deal of money toward their total. Dunkirk however, has yet to race in one. If he wins Saturday's Florida Derby, he will have enough to safely remain in the top 20 and be Derby eligible. If he finishes in second place though, it's less likely he'll be Derby eligible, and if he finishes third, he has no chance. He is allowed to enter races between Saturday and the Derby in order to get his total earnings up, but his owner and trainer don't want to do that because they don't want to over-race such a valuable horse. So if Dunkirk does not win on Saturday, he probably won't be in the Kentucky Derby, and would then probably race next in the Preakness or the Belmont.

Either way, I am very excited to watch the race and I hope you are too.


UPDATE: Good race. Quality Road won an impressive stretch run with Dunkirk. Quality Road looked him the eye and then ran by him. As they turned for home Dunkirk took the lead from Quality Road for a bit, and then Quality Road quickly regained it. It's very rare to see a horse re-take a lead from a horse that just passed it.