First Leg of Breeders' Cup Analysis

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com


With the 2008 Breeders' Cup starting up this Friday at Santa Anita, I began my research last night and will continue it until the final race on Saturday. If you aren't a horse racing fan, you can stop reading now because everything I write will most likely be long-winded (as usual) and I don't feel like taking the time to explain all the jargon I'm using. Sorry.


The biggest question looming over the entire Breeders' Cup this year is how to handicap the "dirt" races, since this is being held over a synthetic track. Specifically the brand of synthetic used at Santa Anita is called Pro-Ride. The Daily Racing Form Official Breeders' Cup 2008 edition has a great article by Brad Free that provides a lot of insight about this new surface, how it compares to the old Santa Anita Dirt, and track biases observed so far. The tidbits I found the most useful were:

• "Favorites still win 28% of the time"
• "The most significant (speed trend) is that contested speed is in trouble, and lone speed is not as advantageous as it is on dirt."
• "Only 4 of the first 38 races at six furlongs were won gate-to-wire. And when two speed horses hook up, the outcome is predictible. Contested speed on Pro-Ride leads to certain defeat"
• Jockey Joe Talamo said "If you get out on the lead, walk the dog, you've got a real good shot, but if you go :21, :44, you're done."
• "Only 5 of the 38 races this meet at six furlongs were won from more than six lengths off the pace"
• "...most sprint winners were positioned just off the pace..."
• "Post position is always a factor. Posts 1 and 2 accounted for just 3 wins from 76 starters at six furlongs. It does not improve at 6.5 furlongs, or seven. Combined, the three distances have produced only 7 wins from 126 starters (5.5%) out of posts 1 and 2. To win from the inside, a sprinter must be good, or lucky"
• "Only 4 of the first 37 routes were won by the pacesetter."

So what to make of all of that is really anyone's guess. While Santa Anita offers outstanding horse racing, each of the fields for the Breeder's Cup will be bursting with world-class talent, no one should be shocked if that data is not compromised on Saturday. With all of the talent racing next weekend, they are surely capable of overcoming any track biases.

The good news is that the turf races are still the same old turf races they have always been. While Breeders' Cup grass races have undoubtedly been dominated by European horses, American horses have had success as well. What I have found is that ANY European horse can win on the grass here, but only the top one or two Americans in each grass are capable of winning. In other words, when American horses have won on the grass, it's been the likes of Kip Deville, or English Channel- the cream of the American Turf crop. While the occasional Singletary or Better Talk Now have also squeeked out BC Wins, American grass upsets are very rare, compared to European grass upsets.

After the prelinary thumbing through of the Form, it looks the only two cinches I can find are Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic (formerly known as The Distaff), and Indian Blessing in the Filly and Mare Sprint. Curlin is one step below "cinch" status in the Classic, and if Goldikova does run in the Filly and Mare Turf (her first preference is the BC Mile against the boys) she would also be a lock to win that race.

Other recommended links are the DRF's BC page here, The Bloodhorse.com and the two-part series on the bloodhorse.com featured here and here, respectively.