By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter
Lets take a look at the Las Vegas futures pools for the KY Derby, March Madness, the World Cup, and Baseball. Not because I have some insight that you can gain, but because it's fun to think about the playoffs/post season/huge race, etc. even when it isn't not all that close to us.
First up: KY Derby. (you can find the past performances of the Derby eligible horses here.) If you have never heard of any of these horses that's ok, as I have heard of about 4 of them. This is the second "pool" or round of betting, you can see that atop the list it says "Pool 2", some horses were dropped or added since Pool 1 and odds on some horses have changed, (drastically in the case of Eskendereya- click here to see the race that precipitated his odds plummeting).
KY Derby Future Wager Pool 2 Odds | |||
| # | Horse | M/L Odds | |
| 1 | Aikenite | 50-1 | |
| 2 | American Lion | 30-1 | |
| 3 | Buddy’s Saint | 12-1 | |
| 4 | Caracortado | 12-1 | |
| 5 | Connemara | 20-1 | |
| 6 | Conveyance | 12-1 | |
| 7 | D’Funnybone | 30-1 | |
| 8 | Dave in Dixie | 30-1 | |
| 9 | Discreetly Mine | 30-1 | |
| 10 | Dublin | 15-1 | |
| 11 | Eskendereya | 6-1 | |
| 12 | Jackson Bend | 20-1 | |
| 13 | Lookin at Lucky | 6-1 | |
| 14 | Nextdoorneighbor | 30-1 | |
| 15 | Noble’s Promise | 30-1 | |
| 16 | Odysseus | 50-1 | |
| 17 | Radiohead | 20-1 | |
| 18 | Rule | 20-1 | |
| 19 | Setusko | 50-1 | |
| 20 | Sidney’s Candy | 20-1 | |
| 21 | Super Saver | 20-1 | |
| 22 | Tempted to Tapit | 50-1 | |
| 23 | Vale of York | 30-1 | |
| 24 | Field (all others) | 7-2 | |
Many of these horses raced in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, the chart of the results can be found here And the race can be viewed here.
That race was 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Derby will be, and was raced over a synthetic surface, whereas the KY Derby will be run over dirt. A few random notes about that race and the Derby:
-You can get 30-1 odds on the winner of the BC Juvenile in the Derby Futures Pool.
- Lookin at Lucky was undefeated going into that race (all of his races coming over a synthetic surface, like he saw in the Breeder's Cup), lost by a head, will race on natural dirt in KY Derby, yet still remains co-favorite at 6-1. Doesn't seem like great value. He also loses value for having a superstar trainer in Bob Baffert- who doesn't hurt his chances of winning the Derby, but also skews his price, much like buying a condo in a Trump-owned building. The owner doesn't make the condo good or bad, but with an owner like Trump, you can be sure you won't be getting a steal, either, in fact, you'll probably overpay.
-D'Funnybone was the 4th betting favorite in Juvenile and is currently 30-1. You can see him winning his 2010 debut here in the Grade 2 Hutechson Stakes.
- Vale of York had never raced on anything but grass before his win in the BC Juvenile.
-Aikenite finished 5th and was the third betting favorite in the Juvenile and is now at 50-1.
-Noble's Promise was the second favorite in the Juvenile, finished third by a head, and is now 30-1 in the Derby pool. Why? Because he has never raced on a dirt surface.
So that's the Derby. I haven't paid much attention to horse racing since the Breeder's Cup, but I am starting to pick it up again now. I am not making any predictions just yet, but just trying to gather the facts, note the trends, and begin watching the upcoming Derby prep races.
NCAA Futures- taken from VegasInsider.com
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I didn't include all of the teams, but I thought these were the only ones with a chance to win it. It looks like the only real value on the board is Duke at 15-1. The point of playing a Futures Pool is to get better odds NOW then you would at the time of the event. If Kansas goes undefeated until the tournament starts, they still won't be less than 2-1, so they offer terrible value. If you love Kansas, why waste your money now when a player could get injured before the tournament starts, and why not just hold your money and take them at 2-1 on the day the tournament starts? Same goes for Kentucky. Syracuse was great value at 25-1, but 7-1 seems fair, and I can't see their price dropping below that before the tournament starts. Again, the point of a future's pool is to assume more risk (injuries, the unforeseen, team falling apart, etc.) and get a price break as a result. Unless you think that Duke, OSU or MSU will make a big run betwixt now and the start of the tourney, you'd be silly to make a wager on the current NCAA futures.
Baseball- taken again from VegasInsider.com Opening Line Current
| N.Y. Yankees | 3/1 | 14/5 |
| Boston | 13/2 | 11/2 |
| Philadelphia | 13/2 | 6/1 |
| L.A. Angels | 17/2 | 14/1 |
| Detroit | 20/1 | 24/1 |
| Seattle | 125/1 | 50/1 |
| Arizona | 75/1 | 60/1 |
| Toronto | 75/1 | 125/1 |
| St. Louis | 8/1 | |
| L.A. Dodgers | 9/1 | |
| Tampa Bay | 11/1 | |
| Chi. White Sox | 12/1 | |
| Atlanta | 12/1 | |
| Chi. Cubs | 14/1 | |
| Colorado | 20/1 | |
| N.Y. Mets | 20/1 | |
| San Francisco | 30/1 | |
| Texas | 30/1 | |
| Minnesota | 30/1 |
Again. If the Yankees were in the World Series, they'd be about about 1/1, so why take less than 3/1 in March? If your goal is to make $200 on the World Series this year, you could either bet about $65 on them in March, or about $110 in October. I'd prefer the latter, since if you do the latter, you at least know that the Yankoffs are IN the world series. Same for Boston and Philly, If the WS were the Yanks and Philly, Philly would be about 3/1, so why take them now at 6/1?
The only real value I can see might be with the White Sox and Mets, and I am not really sold on either.
World Cup- I got it from this site.
2010 FIFA World Cup – June 11 – July 11 – South Africa
Spain 9/2
Brazil 5/1
England 11/2
Argentina 9/1
Italy 11/1
Germany 12/1
Netherlands 12/1
France 14/1
Ivory Coast 25/1
Portugal 28/1
USA 50/1
Your guess is as good as mine, but my value play is Germany. True story: I have ESPN on while I am typing this and while typing Germany was my value play, I saw they lost 1-0 to Argentina. It's probably an omen. The only stand I will take is to not bet on England, they are just total wussies and love choking on the big stage. Don't believe me? Ask Tim Henman how his Wimbledon career went. England reminds me a bit of the Cubs- they make a lot of not noise, play up their tradition and love of the game, occasionally don't suck, have a huge and wild fanbase, and often confuse their bed for their toilet so to speak.
That's how I roll.
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