Shots on Goal

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter


I know this has been a low scoring World Cup, but what I'd like to know is if fewer shots on goal have been attempted? I have seen about 7 actual saves from goalkeepers so far, and I've seen at least 8938378940043908233737363 shots that were at least 2 yards wide of the goal and never had a chance of going in. When a team is down by a goal late in the game and they have an scoring opportunity, it baffles me when a player's shot misses high and wide by 15 yards despite the shot being taken from about 10 yards out.

With seemingly half of the goals we HAVE seen have been soft goals let in via goalkeeping bluders, I don't understand why more shots are not on goal.

Apparently losing is preferable to benefiting from a garbage goal.




That's how I roll.

How do you say, "I'm Wearing My Predictin' Pants" In German?

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter


I'm picking Germany to win the World Cup.


They were my longshot pick before Michael Ballack got injured, then I soured on them when I heard Ballack was gone. Like many, I assumed that since Ballack was so good, the team couldn't replace him and would be much worse off without him. Then while watching Germany play against Australia (keeping mind that Australia is pretty terrible) I learned that the German youngsters had won the u16, u18 and u20 world cups. Now that class was in the world cup for the first time- Thomas Mueller, Mesut Ozil and Marko Marin, et al. and appear ready for the big stage. Being that they're youngsters the pressure isn't on them as much as it may be on Miroslav Klose, and the now-with-expectations Luaks Podolski and Bastian Schweinsteiger, who all appear primed and ready to make another deep World Cup run.

I tried to take into account how weak Australia was and how liking Germany after that game was like taking North Carolina in the NCAA tournament because they somehow managed to blowout 16th-seeded Rider, but I couldn't be talked off of Germany. What I impressed me most about Germany compared to the other World Cup favorites I watched was the calm that Germany felt in their opposition's zone. When the other teams would advance the ball deep in the zone, they start to speed up their game and rush things- kinda like a fish tank when you drain out 2/3s of the water and the fish swim faster and more frantically. But Germany was different- they looked just as calm, confident and composed as when they're sharing the ball at midfield. It reminded me of one of the tests psychologists use to evaluate a serial killer. While exposed to footage of a murder, a serial killer will show no elevation in heart rate: a murder scene doesn't faze them. It's just another part of life- you pick up a newspaper, you make a sandwich, tie your shoes, and murder some people. No big deal. I saw some of that in the German squad- dribbling in their zone, passing at midfield, or passing deep in enemy territory- they all looked equally collected and panic-free.

Spain is too wussy for me- they lost to us last summer for God's sake.
Brazil is strong as ever, but they're trying out a new brand of ball that I think is just going to be too much of a challenge for them to win. They will be dangerous as always, though.
Argentina is probably my second choice, but I think they will find a way to screw something up before their time in South Africa is over.
The Netherlands and England will have to show me a LOT if I am going to take them seriously in the world cup.













That's how I roll.

Good Article on Daley's TIF Policy Harming Teachers

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter



http://www.progressillinois.com/posts/content/2010/06/16/chicago-teachers-increasingly-complaining-about-tif






That's how I roll.

Bill Simmons Being a Little Irregular

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter


The top tweet was posted in early December, I think. The contradictory chat post was from last night (6/15/10) from Bill Simmon's NBA Finals chat cast thingy.




I hope no one asks for his daughter's life, but that does seem like an about-face from his previous policy. Or was that his grand coming out? It be like if Jake Gyllenhaal just went out on a date with a dude and when the paparazzi catch him he just shrugs and is like, "Well.....yeah. Did you really think I was straight? Do you really CARE that I'm gay? Ok then." Then went back to eating his dinner on his date?









That's how I roll.

Bad Day for Jesusophiles

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter


A Hallmark-level, yet successful painter and crazed Christian, Thomas Kinkade did some stinko drivin. If Jesus is so good why does your art suck and why did you just get popped for endangering lives if you love him so much? Weird. It's almost like he's unintelligent.

$700,000 damage was done to Jesus in Monroe, Ohio. Jesus was struck down by lightning. Maybe a dyslexic somewhere said, "May I strike God down with lightning! Wait, I meant may God strike ME down!", but it was too late.


Better luck next week, Jesus.



P.S. Have you ever been so drunk that you have heckled Siegfried and Roy? Thomas Kinkade has.





That's how I roll.

Looking for a way to Humiliate Your Horse? Have it Race Goldikova

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter


Goldikova, the European version of Zenyatta or Rachel Alexandra kicked more male horse hiney today in England in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes.




With her being a miler and Zenyatta and Rachel preferring more of a Classic Distance, I wish they could compromise and race in a 1 1/16th or 1 1/8th race, kinda like how Donovan Bailey and Michael Johnson raced in that 150 meter race.

I digressed, though. The point is Goldikova is awesome.







That's how I roll.

One Metric to Determine Best World Cup Betting Value

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter

I combined easyodds.com's aggregator for the (betting) odds of each team to win the 2010 World Cup with Nate Silver's world cup (winning) odds to arrive at, given these two sets of data, the dollar amount that a person can "expect" to win with each bet.

What the numbers really tell us is that, for Spain, if it wins you would win $450 on a $100 bet (100 X 3.5 odds + the 100 back that you bet = 450). In combination with Silver's win percentage, that means that you have a 14.85% chance of winning $450. When you do the math, you get an expected return of $66.83 on a $100 bet.

In a sense it's like in Fletch when Chevy Chase says something like, "there's a 50/50 chance of survival. But there's only a 10% chance of that happening.".

So here's the breakdown. I went with only the top 9 teams in descending order of betting odds favoritism. I show their odds, their win payout, then the win %age as predicted by Nate Silver

Country- Gambling odds= (Payout if they win)- Silver's Win %age = Payout * %age


Spain- 3.5/1= ($450) 14.85%= $66.83
Brazil- 4.5/1= ($550) 22.39% = $123.15
Argentina- 6/1 ($700) 10.35%= $72.45
Holland- 8/1 ($900) 10.03%= $90.27
England- 8/1 ($900) 8.18% = $73.62
Germany- 9/1 ($1,000) 4.11% = $41.10
Italy- 16/1 ($1,700) 1.86%= $31.62
France- 25/1 ($2,600) 1.51%= $39.26
Portugal- 25/1 ($2,600) 3.54% $92.04


The single biggest explanation for this is that Nate Silver gives Brazil a huge relative chance (22.39%) of winning the World Cup, over the next likely candidate, Spain at 14.85%- or about 33% more likely. So by Silver's metric, Brazil is a clear favorite, but the betting odds have them listed as a slight second favorite.

We all know that a chain is only as strong as it's weakest link and, some of Silver's win percentages seem questionable (is Brazil really 5 times more likely to win than Germany? or .33 more likely than Spain?), but again, I wasn't claiming to personally swear by all of this data, I'm just saying, "Hey, I did this and thought you might be interested.".


A Few Clarifications for Gambling Rookies

You may be asking what the difference is between betting odds and win odds, since after all, the betting odds are the odds to win it all. The difference is that Silver's win odds, are (his interpretation of) the objective odds to actually win it. The betting odds at various betting sites, are generally an accurate reflection of the probability of winning, but are ultimately designed to entice betting. They are running a business after all.

To help illustrate the difference between the two, consider a hypothetical: If me, you and 9 of our friends fielded a team in the world cup, we would have a 0% of winning (true odds), but the odds-makers would offer a bet on us anyway, just to entice betting, thereby making them money. They would give us odds of 750,000/1 (gambling odds), and gladly pocket the money that our friends bet on us, or people accidentally/drunkenly wager on us, knowing full well the odds of us winning is zero.

Now take that theoretical into a real life example. Instead of you, men and 9 friends, imagine you are in England selling bets to the English betting public. They know damn well English fans WANT to bet on England, regardless of the odds, thereby making it a seller's market. So if England really has a 10/1 chance to win, the oddsmakers want to sell odds at 8/1, since it's a seller's market. And if England does win, that will save them 20% of all payouts. However, the betting public can also shop around a little and take whoever gives the highest odds. This may give our sportsbook incentive to drop their odds to 9/1 in order to offer more value.

Most of the oddsmakers represented at easyodds.com are from England, so in this exercise, I'm not sure how close to true odds these sports books are because so much of their betting is hinged upon taking money on England.


Note: All of the odds used were current at the time of writing.




That's how I roll.

Lookalikes v 35.0- Mesut Ozil and Peter Lorre

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter

Exciting German World Cup team member Mesut Ozil and Hollywood Legend from Casablanca and The Maltese Falcon, Peter Lorre, look a lot alike.























































































That's how I roll.

Up Yours, England

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter


Look familiar, Englerlund? USA! USA!






That's how I roll.

You'll Think Less of Me

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter

I accidentally thought of this one and I wasn't about to suffer through it alone.

Below is Li'l Wayne's song, Lolipop where he chronicles the receiving of oral services. The song opens with some clever lolipop-as-fellatio wordplay with him saying, "she said 'he's so sweet, I wanna lick the (w)rapper.' So I let her lick the (w)rapper".

I accidentally found myself singing along but changing the lyrics to "'he's so sweet, I wanna like the crapper.' So I let her lick the crapper."









That's how I roll.

Live Fast, Die Young, Leave an Obese Corpse: The Photographic Ballad of TR Slyder Dogging the McGangBang

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter

This is the McGangBang. I learned about it today. It's two items of the dollar menu at McDonald's: the McDouble and the McChicken. Two bucks and 23 cents takes it home- unless you donate to the Ronald McDonald House. You separate the two patties of the double and shamefully, yet, lustfully, insert the entire McChicken betwixt the patties. After that the only thing left to do is temporarily disable to your dignity in order to enable yourself to do something like this.*

I thought this sounded like something I could do so I did it. My friends said, "pics or it didn't happen", so I documentation my culinary descent into culinary hell. The Inferno described by our friend Dante had nine circles, I got right to the 9th circle in only 8 bites.

Theme song, bite #s, and corresponding circle of Dante's hell.

* denotes- N/A to people who drive monster trucks.

Bite 0.










Bite 1. Limbo. Inhabited by The Unbaptized and Virtuous Pagans







Bite 2. The Gluttonous.






Bite 3. The Hoarders and the Spendthrifts

(I couldn't NOT keep it real aqui, senor robles)






Bite 4. The Wrathful and the Sullen






Bite 5. The Heretics.





I thought this pic was blurry and then I realized I didn't have any proof of the date. I didn't have a newspaper in front of me today but I did take a pic of the screen from ChicagoTribune.com covering today's Blackhawks Parade, with my 5-bite bitten McGangBang.





Bite 6. The Violent.







The Penultimate Bite: Bite 7. The Fraudulent.






The Final Bite. Bite 8. The Traitors.















That's how I roll.

The Most American Meal Possible: The McGangBang

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter

UPDATE: I ate one.


The Yin and Yang of food manifest. Along with hard drugs, unprotected sex, sky diving, literally playing with fire, and all other good things, the McGangBang is awesome, yet could kill you.


If you put the KFC Double Down in there too you should call it the McCaligula. If that doesn't roll off the tongue for you, I would also suggest the McI'veLostTheWillToLive.


click here to support the fighting of childhood obesity.




That's how I roll.

LoveChildInvestigation v 14.0: Howdy Doody + Bill Paxton = Chris Pronger

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter




































That's how I roll.

Intervention

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter


Dear Nearly All Black Sports Talking Heads,

Thank you for your unfailing success at mentioning a Kardashian sister every time you talk about Reggie Bush or Lamar Odom. It makes you look hip, virile, non-creepy, intelligent and even more sports expert. Like several other sports fans, I don't watch sports for the games but to gain a perspective for who sports talking heads are attracted to.


-TR










That's how I roll.

ESPN's Horse Racing Coverage Still Subpar

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, @AndyDisco on Twitter

First thing is first- I am glad ESPN is broadcasting horse racing and I think Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey are great, as are the little essay readings by Bill Nack. My problem with their coverage is about the direction /scope/focus of the coverage, which I will get to a bit later.

Most of my concerns about horse racing are about the sports as a whole. Specifically, that zero people care about horse racing and the industry has little reason to believe that will change anytime time soon. So what I look for from horse racing events or broadcasts is that it is done in a manner that fosters the participation of new fans. That means less horse racing jargon, a bit more explaining how things work, and so on.

In my opinion the biggest barrier people face in entering horse racing is that they don't know what all the jargon means- place, show, furlong, route, exacta, trifecta, maiden race, etc. Equally obstructive to their participation is the deciphering of the essential bible of horse racing jargon and cryptic symbology- The Daily Racing Form. It's too intimdating for people to want to try to figure out, and, as someone who has explained to scores of people over my life how to read a Form, it would be damn near impossible to figure out what all that stuff means on your own.

It's for that reason that I think ESPN should do a better job of educating the public about how to read the Form and participate in the sport. ESPN should give people the information, which will then lead to the requisite confidence to take their family, friends or girlfriend to a day at their local track.

I'd like to see ESPN's coverage include more racing handicappers (people who try to pick the winners) telling us their selections and why. They could show us the Racing Form on the screen with a telestrator while the handicapper points at the numbers and explains why they factored in his decision. This is the only way to learn how to handicap a race- you have to watch someone do it in front of you while they explain it.

Unfortunately, ESPN's coverage has way too little of this, despite having Randy Moss, who is an excellent and innovative handicapper in his own right. Instead, their modus operandi is to deluge the viewers with human interest stories, biographies of Belmont connections, and Kenny Mayne's questionable hilarity all while trying to shoehorn in the undercard. What they should do is focus on each of the successive races before the Belmont and handicap them, leaving out the human interest stories. When I go to the track with my Racing Form under my arm, I don't know any of the human interest stories. Sure, some are fascinating, but that isn't why I love the sport. Every conceivable aspect of life has human interest stories, so let us focus on what is unique to horse racing- like horses that race eachother and betting on them.

If you like human interest stories, you may not necessarily love horse racing. But if you love horse racing, then you love horse racing. So lets focus on horse racing. You have to aim high- and if someone watching ESPN's broadcast fell in love with everything ESPN was saying, that doesn't make them a fan of actual horse racing, just a fan of horse racing stories. And if you go to the track on any given saturday, you won't know any of the stories. Similarly, if ESPN's broadcast was focused on handicapping and someone fell in love with that coverage, they could visit their local track the next day and help support the sport.

ESPN and the horse racing community need to prepare the populace with the ability to fend for themselves at the track.. Namely arming them handicapping and betting knowledge. That and only that will help bring people back.

Today's broadcast of the Belmont Day is probably the best day of racing in America other than the Breeder's Cup- Four Grade 1 races and two Grade 2s. Sadly, such an exciting concentration of talent is lost on ESPN's coverage. While they should be telling us how exciting the next race is and why, they merely show the odds of the horses in the upcoming race, before going to more human interest stories, debates about the Triple Crown structure and showing the Belmont Stakes odds yet again. The casual viewer at home has no idea what a special DAY of racing this is and how special the horses on their television screen really are. While they could be learning about how important post position or pedigree is to a sprint race, they instead are forcefed another drunken-like stumbling of Hank Goldberg interspersed with Kenny Mayne making sure the focus is on him and not the horses.

I used to wonder why no one follows horse racing.

In Jack Keruouc and William S. Burroughs book, And The Hippos Were Boiled in Their Tanks, there is a scene where the characters are at a port in NYC and are waiting around to be interviewed for the Merchant Marines. They're bored and nearly broke but they can't leave their area for fear they'll miss their interview. In an effort to cure his boredom, one of the characters picks up a Racing Form and gives it a quick look to see if he likes any horses running that day and can maybe make some easy money before he is interviewed and possibly deployed.

In the entire book about NYC's WWII-era Beatnik Boehemia, that scene struck me as the most outdated.

















That's how I roll.