Showing posts with label Horse Racing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Horse Racing. Show all posts

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Ohhhh Maaaaa Gaaaaaa, Ohhhhh Maaaa Gaaaaaa Rachel Alexandra Wins the Woodward

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter

Rachel Alexandra won an AWESOME race in the Woodward today, narrowly holding off a charging Macho Again. That was an uber-doozie for the ages. Great race by Rachel, great ride by jockey Calving Borel and a fabulous call by announcer Tom Durkin. My brother was at the race and said that was the loudest he has ever heard Saratoga.

Here's Rachel Alexandra's 2009 Woodward on YouTube, it was post just a minute ago





Some random notes:

- To show what an impressive horse Rachel is, watch how quickly Da Tara runs in reverse at the far turn. Staying a length behind Rachel Alexandra for a half-mile proved too taxing for the 2008 Belmont winner and he just stopped. (I hope that wasn't caused by injury. If he did get injured I take that back, but I haven't heard that he was injured during the race yet, so I am assuming he was sound).

-Rachel turned away Da' Tara, Past the Point, Bullsbay and Macho Again. All four had their shot, took their best shot, and got dirt kicked in their face.

-At the 1:52 mark I am 100% positive that Macho Again will run her down. Despite knowing the outcome of the race, and having watched it 4 or 5 times already, I keep expecting Macho Again to pass her (Psychology scholars will note well that Albert Einstein once said “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”, and that has served as the general functional definition ever since).

- That race had to have been ridiculously grueling for her. I hope she comes out of it in good shape. Not many three year olds go 8-for-8.

- Great job Breeders' Cup. Yes, I'm still harping on it. Synthetic surface TWO YEARS IN A ROW. You reap what you sow, get what you deserve, get back what you put in, etc. And what you deserve is not having Rachel Alexandra. You earned getting your nose turned up in your direction. (Editor's note: Mmmm, those Hater-Tots were delicious)

-You really can't overetate how good of a filly she is. It's not like she just broke her maiden and won by 15 lengths, then after getting all excited about it someone said, "Ok calm down, she still has a lot to prove. We can't call her the second coming of Ruffian just yet." Well, that isn't the case with Rachel Alexandra. She is the second coming of Ruffian and as long as you don't say she is clearly better than Ruffian you aren't getting carried away. It is ok to go nuts over here.

- She also bucked Calvin Borel off before the race. I just thought I'd add that. Usually that isn't a great omen, and I am pretty sure she'd never done that before.

-I will say it again. GREAT call by Tom Durkin. I'm 29 years old. The odds of me liking another announcer of any sport more than I like Durkin by the time can be measured only in scientific notation. 10 X 5^1-18th. I love Durkin, and this call ranks among his very best (I just updated my salute of him) He conveyed the heightened stakes with his voice alone. It just sounded different than a maiden claiming race- as it should have. It was a great call. He knew that regardless of the outcome, it was Rachel's race- she was the story, and he called the race as such. Lesser announcers would have pretended it was just another race. You could hear the release of his full theater-major gusto. I know for a fact that he had a lot stored up for when Smarty Jones was going to win the Belmont. Unfortunately, Durking had to tuck that away, but it sounded liek he culled from that reserve to call Rachel's historic race and Tom was among the people I was most happy for. He let loose and it sounded like it felt it great. It felt great hearing it, anyway. He's kinda the male announcing equivalent of Rachel Alexandra, I guess.

-I'm eager to see what her Beyer Speed Figure will be. That race, though visually stunning and fast early on, wasn't super fast as far as Grade 1 races go. I'm guessing she'll be in the 105-109 range, but that's just a guess based on how the Forego was raced before it, and the time for the Whitney this year.

- With Rachel winning by only a head, every single bit of ground-saving helped, another advantage of being a speed horse, drawing near the rail and being ridden by Calvin Bo-rail. If you're following Macho Again (in the yellow coming from off the picture on the far turn) it looks like he's a sure winner at the 1:33 mark. Then turning for home you see Rachel and Calvin on the rail, and Macho Again 3 wide. It's obvious that Macho Again ran substantially farther than Rachel Alexandra did. Macho Again's jockey, Robby Albarado, isn't to blame, he is an accomplished jockey and his horse has a late-running style and they are often caught going 5-wide around the far turn, but that's where the race was both won and lost.

I just saw Robby said this (here), "I never thought I had her," he said. "The only thing I was hoping for was that she'd tire. Champions show different dimensions. She's in a league of her own. Older horses, her own age, it doesn't matter. No matter what they throw at her, she'll beat them." That was classy of him. I also didn't expect it, not because he is not classy, but because I was positive on two different occasions that his horse would win, yet he was positive zero times. I guess its time to admit that that awesome jockey (who jockey'd Curlin among others) knows more about horse racing than I do.

- If Macho Again hadn't run ragged and bumped Bullsbay at the 1:54 mark, would he have won? It looked like he was flying, then brushed Bullsbay and lost a bit of steam, then picked it right back up again only to lose by a head. I guess we'll never know, but that appeared to slow him down. (update again) I would not believe that anyone in the world has watched this race more times than I have, and (not that he needs my validation) I think Robby was right. I don't think his bump costed him all that much momentum/velocity.

-If a high school senior asked Rachel Alexandra to his senior prom and her handlers accepted, wouldn't that kid be guaranteed an internship at the Daily Racing Form?

-That race kicked hiney. She really is the Rachel Alexandra of horse racing.

**********************************************************

Now I'm just being (more) self indulgent/autobiographical. It's totally fine if you don't read this portion.

I had to work until just before the start of the race, and I wasn't by an OTB. I don't get TVG or HRTV. Luckily I have a-hole/very good friends. My friend Joe sent me the following texts, "Do you get the Woodward on TV?" He read my blog and tweets, so he knows how big of a deal this race is, and how much I care about it. So I reply with, "No I don't", I assume he is interested in watching it, so I instruct him on how to watch the race replay on NYRA.com shortly after the race, or where to find a live radio feed. He smugly replies with, "Too bad, I get it on live TV". In so many words I reply with something to the effect of, "Though you are a gentleman, you do not deserve this honor.". Since I know I have no chance of watching it live, I ask him to place his phone by the speaker of his television during the race. He's a good friend and obliges. I sat at home watching my racing form listening to Tom Durkin's call. That race was every single thing I hoped it would be. I know that Durkin calls the race like a tv announcer (meaning for those watching on-track, as opposed to those listening at home without sound, a la radio) but I was still slightly misled. I thought Da' Tara still held the lead throughout, for one. That turned out to be irrelevant once Rachel ran her down.

But the tension I felt listening to Tom Durkin (via my friend Joe) will be something I can never share with anyone. Durkin did a tremendous job calling the race, but I still somehow wanted more. When he said it will be "a dramatic stretch drive awaits in the Woodward Stakes" I gripped my chair tighter. I hoped he meant it would be easy for Rachel, but dramatic....I don't know why....cuz it was historic? I didn't want a close race...I knew Rachel had the lead and was waiting to hear until she was overtaken, and she wasn't...Then I heard Durkin- who has never mislead me- say it will be "desperately close" and my heart sank. I knew he wanted Rachel to win and if he said it would be "desperately close" it would be that close. I also thought that it was his way of breaking the news softly to us. He'd be too kind to say, "Macho Again runs down Rachel", or "Macho Again inhales a tiring Rachel". I appreciated the passive voice and euphemism and was prepared my ears for the worst. I knew they'd hit the wire at the same time, and when Durkin says it will be close, it IS close....I know his calls. He says it's close.......he pauses........he announces the winner. That is what he does.

'It's going to be desperately close...here's the wire!!!" *************95 years of my life. seriously. 95 years. ***************** That was bad. Tom is the best. If he knew Rachel would win he would have said it. But the bravado in his voice as the super-talented Macho Again started his stride hurt my confidence. I knew he inched closer and closer, and since Tom didn't say Rachel kicked him away I feared the worst. They hit the wire together. My heart was residing behind my navel. The hit the wire together. The next name he says is the winner- that's just his way. PLEASE TOM. Just. Say. "Rachel". HOW MUCH LONGER CAN THIS GO ON!!! YOU ARE MURDERING MY SOUL!!! (it was half a second)

"RACHEL WON!!!!!!!!!!"

*room starts spinning*

the end.









I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Yes, I am Picking Rachel in the Woodward


By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter


It's not that I think she's a cinch to win the race, or that I am predicting she'll win by 4+ lengths, but her numerical dominance over the field makes it difficult to confidently select any of her foes- all of which seem to be more or less evenly (over)matched. If someone told me they were going to bet on Macho Again or Cool Coal Man with their own money, I wouldn't try to talk them out of it, but I just don't envision Calvin Borel allowing Rachel to get boxed or pinned in, and I also can't see Calvin or Rachel panicking at any part of the race and running in a style that is not of their choosing.

Much like a power forward with a jump shot, a 6'8'' shooting guard, or a 6'5'' wide receive that runs a 4.2 second 40-yeard dash- Rachel's style and talent create a lot of matchup problems for her opponents. Despite being faster than speedsters, she sits right off of them while Calvin measures how much gas they have left in the tank, once Calvin puts the (metaphorical) spurs to her, the race ends. When Calvin tells her to go, she passes the tiring speed horses and gets a jump on the closers. In terms of race positioning, she's right off the pace and ahead of the closers- that stalking style is not a rarity in racing, but her talent is. She's a better speed horse than the speed horses, and a better closer than the closers.

All horses are vulnerable in every race, even great ones. But the great horses that are most vulnerable are the horses that need the lead, and the deep closers. Rachel's tactical speed means she is neither.

In the Forego I like Kodiak Kowboy and Peace Chant.




I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.

Thanks for Coming out, Del Mar

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter


Saturday's horse races will feature four Grade 1 Races that tower over the rest- 2 at Saratoga and 2 at Del Mar (with the previously chronicled experimental-gone-wrong surface).

Del Mar's Pacific Classic is one of the jewels of west coast racing and ought to be a doozie. Saratoga's Woodward features Rachel Alexandra (also previously chronicled. A few times) in a historic bid to defeat older males in a Grade 1, and before that race at Saratoga is the 7 Furlong Forego. So what's the other big race at Del Mar? The Pat O'Brien Breeders' Cup Stakes. I'm not joking.

In all fairness to Del Mar and the sport, the race is NOT named after Pat O'Brien of nasal voice, mustache fame, it's named after a co-founder of Del Mar's race track. But, in all fairness to me, I couldn't care less and I carry on as though it were named after the less reputable Pat O'Brien. That being said....

Real classy, Del Mar. Saratoga names their races after Horsemen, Financiers and Statesmen, and you go with Pat O'Brien. When are you gonna re-name the Pacific Classic the Alec Baldwin Rude Vile Little Pig Stakes?










I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Using my two Favorite Techniques to Analyze Rachel Alexandra's Chance in the Woodward- Plagiarism and Primates

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter

I was thinking about monkeys again last night. But I also kept thinking about the Steve Haskin article on BloodHorse.com that I linked to in my previous Rachel Alexandra/Woodward post; he made some really good points that concerned me. So I thought I'd break his article down paragraph by paragraph and kinda translate it for my readers that maybe aren't as versed in horse racing jargon as they are other languages- like Monkey Language, for instance.


Here is Haskin's first paragraph:

Rachel Alexandra drew post 3 for Saturday’s $750,000 Woodward Stakes (gr. I). No big deal, you say? By breaking close to the rail, and with a big bruiser in the aptly named Bullsbay drawing directly inside her in post 2 and a speedy Nick Zito-trained stalker, Cool Coal Man, directly outside her in post 4, a scenario is developing where Rachel could find herself in some heavy traffic at different stages of the race.

To monkeyify getting stuck betwixt Bullsbay and Cool Coal Man:



Haskin's next paragraph:

When you see Zito put in two tactical speed horses against a heavy favorite who has the same running style as his horses, you can bet he has an agenda, meaning Da' Tara, breaking from the rail and coming off a bullet :47 flat work on the Oklahoma training track, likely will bust out of the gate to assure Rachel will not get an easy lead in case that strategy was to enter Calvin Borel’s mind. If Rachel takes off the pace, she will have Cool Coal Man, It's a Bird, and Past the Point all in a position to pin her down on the rail behind Da’ Tara, meaning there is a decent chance she could wind up in a neat little box by the time they hit the backstretch.

Watch out for possible bunching, grouping, crowding, boxing, etc.:

crowding....... .....boxing














Haskin's third paragraph:

Sitting back, waiting to see how the race unfolds, will be Asiatic Boy and Macho Again, both tough, battle-tested closers. Now, remember, this is merely a possible scenario based on how the race is shaping up. But it surely is one to be wary of.

Two combatants waiting until others put their cards on the table, then playing their own hands accordingly:



















Haskin's 4th paragraph:

The bottom line, this is not a race or a field to be taken lightly. These older horses are more formidable than people think, at least on any given day. Each has shown they have a big race in them, including Past the Point, who gave Curlin quite a scare at 40-1 in last year’s Woodward. Bullsbay and Cool Coal Man each are coming off a 107 Beyer at Saratoga; It’s a Bird ran a 107 Beyer two races back; Macho Again is coming off a 105 Beyer; and Past the Point ran a 110 Beyer in last year’s Woodward.


Be wary of assassins:



Haskin's 5th paragraph:

Before anyone starts getting depressed over this unsettling scenario, the intention here is not to suggest Rachel is going to get beat, but it is Saratoga and it is a 3-year-old filly against older males, and Borel is going to have a bulls-eye on his back and must constantly be aware of everything going on around him and any plots developing during the running of the race, especially the first half-mile. Just remember how they ganged up on poor Stewart Elliott and Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I).


Borel's in need of vigilance: It won't be a day at the beach for Calvin Borel, that's for sure. Heck, even if it were a day at the beach, he'd still want to stay vigilant.




But he'd probably want to be even more vigilant than that. Too bad he couldn't have another pair of eyes looking out for Rachel.


(Answer: I'm pretty sure you can't. It'd be tough to do that and stay within the weight requirement. But good thinking!)

Haskin's 6th paragraph:

Of course, we’re dealing with a filly who could prove to be as great as any who ever lived and who most likely will not be fazed in the slightest by any tactics the other riders might employ. But it is something to think about. If Rachel is able to escape any ambushes and booby traps early on and gets a clear run, then it will all be up to her to show what she can do against these big, tough ol’ boys.

Let's not forget that Rachel Alexandra knows how to kick hiney:



And finally, Haskin's final paragraph:


Asiatic Boy, for example, has won or placed in grade I stakes on three continents. If you’re looking for a horse who can’t bear the thought of getting beat by a 3-year-old filly it’s one named Macho. Bullsbay is a bull and he’s a bay and last weighed in at over 1,230 pounds. It’s a Bird possesses the magic name “Bird” that has been soaring all year in major stakes, and his name just happens to be the opening line to the introduction of Superman. Yep, this is a tough bunch.

The competition is strong:



Steve Haskin made some great points and painted a very believable picture of a scenario that a lot of people simply didn't envision. It wouldn't take a freak occurence for Rachel Alexandra to get beat on Saturday. Sometimes in horse racing the field teams up on the big favorite- maybe one horse (like maybe Da' Tara) sprints out faster than he ordinarily would, ostensibly sacrificing his own chances at victory just for the sake of bothering the favorite (Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey relished doing just that when he wasn't aboard the favorite). Then, the very instant after the sprinter is turned away by the favorite, a closer (like maybe Asiatic Boy or Macho Again) might start his run a bit earlier than he'd like, and take on the favorite- almost as though he and the faded sprinter are in a relay race against the favorite. As soon as one horse gets tired, he passes the baton off to the next horse. Now it's his turn to make sure that the favorite stays harried and never gets any chance to catch his (or her) breath. Maybe the big favorite digs in and heroically kicks away from the early closer with his (or her) last ounce of effort, only to be nipped at the wire from the VERY deep closer (like m aybe Asiatic Boy or Macho Again) who came from out of nowhere, and is the benefactor of the group effort.


Really, it's a lot like the last scene of Scarface, with all of those would-be assassins taking their shot at Tony Montana, and all of them getting killed one-by-one, at least at first. And when it appears the tide is starting to turn in favor of the assassins what happens? Tony says, "So you wanna play rough, huh? Ok. Say hello to my li'l Fr'en'!" and #@**POW**@#, that threat is over with a boom and a cloud of smoke. After that, Tony thinks he can let his guard down. That's when The Skull calmly creeps up behind Tony and gets his man without even breaking a sweat. You set 'em up, he'll knock 'em down. Sure, some people lost but the team won.


There is a pretty decent chance that a similar pack-mentality will develop on Saturday- it certainly wouldn't be the first time that has happened to the big favorite in a big race. But there's also a pretty decent chance Rachel Alexandra will win by open lengths and leave us all stupified with mouths agape. I'm not sure which it will be.

Either way, it will be a great....




spectacle.







I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.

Rachel Alexandra to Race Against Older Boys in 2 Days. Feel Free to Run Around Screaming While Flailing Your Arms Wildly In Anticipation





By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter


As TR Slyder scholars know well, I like horse racing and the filly Rachel Alexandra. As the headline mentions, on Saturday she takes older males for the first time and is installed as the 1-2 favorite on the morning line. I couldn't think of a cohesive and prosaic way to fit all I want to say about this topic and include all the links, so this post will be all over the place. On the off chance you find segues intoxicating, this blog post will be a sobering one. To alleviate the sobriety however, I'll pepper in some amusing pictures that are loosely, or not related to the text in order to help you get through the whole article.

It's a bigger deal than you may think. The top three stories on the reputable BloodHorse.com are all about Rachel (here, here and here). The DailyRacingForm.com has Rachel as their lead story and also as their 7th. For historical perspective of the feat Rachel is shouldering, This article from Brisnet.com is the most informative I have read (for those of us that are less mature and/or unfamilar with horse racing, yet familiar with what a bris is, feel free to snicker at the site being called "Brisnet" and that they have a column called "Handicappers Edge").

It was historic when Rachel beat dudes in the Grade 1 Preakness, and also in the Grade 1 Haskell, but those were against 3-year olds, or boys here own age. This time she is taking on older dudes in a Grade 1 race. "Grade 1" just means that it is THE top tier of racing- as dictated by the race's history and the prize money. 3 year old fillies have beaten older males in Grade 1 races before, but an American filly has accomplished it in only twice since 1987.

Another historical aspect of this race is that with this blog post, Rachel ties Rod Blagojevich for 6th place as the most frequent topics of blog posts on www.whereawesomehappens.blogspot.com, as you can see in the margin.

If Rachel wins on Saturday she will basically guarantee that she wins the Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year. A win would also cement a spot for her alongside Ruffian as the best filly race horse in the modern era. The latter is probably meaningless to the casual reader, or even to readers in ball gowns or tuxedos (HELOOOOO), but again, it's a huge deal for horse racing. Much like how discussion of the best basketball of the modern era starts and stops with Michael Jordan, the same is true for fillies and Ruffian. In an era when 0 people follow horse racing, the sport making headlines only from tragedies, and the public never getting to know any horses because their careers are now so short, its nice to see such a positive story, and one that might bring a few fans into the sport. That being said, her race will not air live on national television unless you get either HRTV (Horse Racing TV) or TVG (also a horse racing channel). If you are lucky to get either, the race will air at 5:52 Eastern Time. Well, the race will air at the time regardless of whether you get those channels, but you know what I meant.

I downloaded the Past Performance for Saturday's race, but it's probably illegal to post it, despite this site getting about 60 readers a day. But if you'd like a copy of it, just email me and I'd be happy to email it to you as a personal favor. That's probably legal enough for my low standards.

As far as the race itself, she is the logical favorite in the field of 8. It isn't the strongest field in the history of Grade 1 races, but is solid nonetheless. Notables include 2009 Whitney Stakes winner Bullsbay; Da' Tara- the only horse to finish first in a race which included Big Brown, that happened in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, thus ending Big Brown's bid for the elusive Triple Crown; Macho Again who finished 2nd in both the 2008 Preakness and the 2009 Whitney Handicap and who, like Bullsbay, ran the best race of his life last time out over the Saratoga track; and It's a Bird- the son of Birdstone, who won the 2005 Travers and Belmont Stakes. It's a Bird is also the half-brother to both Mine that Bird (winner of the 2009 KY Derby) and Summer Bird (winner of the 2009 Belmont Stakes and Travers Handicap, but lost to Rachel by 6th lengths in the 2009 Haskell Invitational). And since you're wondering, It's a Bird's owner, Edmund Gann, was also the owner of Rachel Alexandra's father, Medaglia D'Oro.

I guess I digressed from the actual race though. Those are the notable foes for Saturday, and on paper Rachel towers over the field. Her career earnings vs. the next highest opponents are...Oh. I'll be damned. I was getting ready to type that she has way more $ in career earnings then any other horse in the field, then I was gonna check the PP's to see by how much and over whom, but she has actually been out-earned by a horse I did not mention, Asiatic Boy. He's earned $3.7 million to Rachel Alexandra's 2.4. Who knew? In Rachel's defense, it has taken him 4 more races to do so, but both are impressive, nonetheless. Rachel's highest Beyer Speed Figure is 116, the next highest in the field is owned by (another horse I didn't mention in the last paragraph) Past the Point and is 110. Interestingly enough he did it in this race (the Woodward) last year, and he has the same jockey (Edgar Prado) as he did then.

I'm sure I'll preview the race in more depth later on Thursday or at some point on Friday, but I've probably written at least 400 words too many enough about her.













I'm T.R. Slyder Tyler Benchfield, and that's how you Tangueray.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Who Came Out of the Travers Looking the Best? Rachel Alexandra.


By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter


Were you expecting me to say "Summer Bird"? After Summer Bird's gutsy win in the Belmont and on Sunday's Travers we're finally starting to appreciate what a great horse he is. Any horse that wins those two races is bonafide monster.

A look at Summer Bird's past performances in the Daily Racing Form reveals that in his last race, The Haskell Invitational, Summer Bird earned a 106 Beyer, yet finished second, beaten 6 lengths. Who was it that beat Summer Bird by 6? Rachel Alexandra.

You could now do a 2-Degrees-of-Separation test with Rachel and nearly every three year old male that matters to indicate she has beaten either the horses themselves, or the horses that have beaten those horses. She's unreal.


Hey Zenyatta, come get a taste!







I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.

Friday, August 28, 2009

My Travers Assessment

(above photograph courtesy of T.R. Slyder)
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter
(The horse in the picture is Quality Road as a young 'un)


The 140th Running of the Travers should be a doozey. The race that is often referred to as the Midsummer Derby features Quality Road- who was expected to be the favorite in the KY Derby before being sidelined with a hoof injury, Summer Bird- who won the Belmont, Charitable Man who went off at 9/2 in the Belmont before finishing 4th, and the near-overnight sensation Kensei.

I attacked this race from two angles, 1- the pace scenario, and 2- seeing if Quality Road was beatable. Of Quality Road's 5 starts, 4 have earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 100+ and three of those, his three most recent, have earned Beyers of 110+. No other horse has ran higher than a 106 in a graded stakes race (Warriors Reward freaked in an Allowance race and ran a 113 in May). The elephant in the room with handicapping this race is to determine whether or not Quality Road simply lays over the field with talent and is too good to be beaten. If every other horse runs it's 100% best race- can Quality Road still beat them with a 90% effort?

Much of the pace scenario should be easy to predict- but the few parts of it that are difficult to predict are the most important. #5, Our Edge should go right to the lead with Warriors Reward and Quality Road either contesting the lead or sitting closely off it (by anywhere from .5 to 1.5 lengths off), followed by Kensei sitting another length or so behind them. Charitable Man ought to be near Kensei, my guess is that he'll be a half-length behind him, and Summer Bird and Hold Me Back both in the back, timing their final run. I anticipate Summer Bird starting off in last then slowly progressing gradually until he's about 3 lengths off the lead by the far turn.

Barring a stumbled start for one of the speedsters, its hard to see the race unfolding radically different than this. What will be difficult, yet important, to try to determine will be how close Quality Road is to the lead and how much energy, if any, he spends trying to be on the lead early. If he's able to sit patiently toward the inside, just a length or so off the lead, that ought to bode very well for Quality Road who wants to have both some gas in the tank and a slight lead on the closers when they turn for home. If he exerts a lot of energy vying for the lead, that will diminish the amount of stank in the tank, so to speak. This is also where QR's talent advantage comes into play- is he so talented that he can overcome a speed duel with Our Edge and run faster than he'd like to early on, and still have enough to hold off the late charging foes?

Kensei's position relative to Quality Road will also be important. Ideally for Kensei, he will sit patiently right off Quality Road and be in a position to run him down at the end. If, however Kensei and Quality Road "hook up" and engage in a speed duel early on, it will tire both of them out and improve the chances for Charitable Man and Summer Bird to run down their tired foes down the stretch. It's also possible that Charitable Man could be forwardly placed and duel with Quality Road, but I find that scenario less likely.

As the field turns for home I anticipate Quality Road to emerge as the leader and starting his late run before all others. Upon seeing Quality Road giving it the gas, then Charitable Man and Kensei will also be summoned to make their bid, where they'll run down a tiring Our Edge, and probably Warrior's Reward. Once all of our eyes focus on QR, CM and Kensei, we will notice that Summer Bird is not far behind.

Then what? This is when I think Quality Road is going to wow us. After pulling away from Our Edge I don't think he'll be caught. Even if one of the talented horses happened to stay with him or even catches him I don't think anticipate them having more grit and determination than Quality Road. Why do I say that?



In holding off the favored Dunkirk, Quality Road showed more tenacity in that race than any of these horses have. He also held off a higher-caliber horse than any of his Travers foes ever have.

I think the Travers' 1 1/4 will be a touch too far for Charitable Man and he'll be run down by Kensei and eventually Summer Bird, who will compete for 2nd place. I give the edge to Summer Bird here because I think he has more flexible with his timing and had will have a few options on Saturday. It also doesn't hurt that I saw his father win the 2004 Travers over a sloppy track.

To provide more context for this race- here is the 2009 Jim Dandy which was run over the same Saratoga surface earlier this month. It featured Kensei, Charitable Man and Warrior's Reward.



That race was an eighth of a mile shorter than the Travers will be, and you can see that Charitable Man wants no part in any added distance. Kensei showed us some talent, but seemed to just outlast tired foes, moreso than ripping the race away from a determined bunch.

Being that I think the top three will be Quality Road, Summer Bird and Kensei- I haven't really taken much of a stand as those are the three favorites (with QR being the favorite). So I feel obligated to throw in my longshot pick- Our Edge.

I think the winner of the race will have to run at least a 106 Beyer. Hold Me Back and Charitable Man have had chances to show us that they're capable of running a 106 and have been unable to. Warrior's Reward freaked in one race and ran a 113, which is the highest lifetime Beyer in this race, but I think that was a bit flukey with Calvin Borel giving him a dream trip along the rail while at the back of the pack at Churchill Downs, a la Mine That Bird. Since he'll be more forwardly placed this time around I just don't think that will happen again. So that leaves us with Our Edge at 15-1. He's been in only 5 races and his Beyer's keep going up in his 5 starts his Beyers are (48, 79, 91, 91, 100). In his last race while recording the 100 BSF, he won by 7 lengths so, you have to figure he wasn't giving it his all towards the end and could have run a 103 or 105 if need be, so he could be sitting on a big race here. His last two works are bulleted works over the Saratoga track, and he is also the only horse in the race who has won over a Sloppy track- which could become a factor as rain is in the forecast. You know he's going right to the lead and if Quality Road stumbles at the start or just throws in a poor effort, he could get loose on the lead and hold off the closers. At 15-1, there is a lot to like.







I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.

Synthetic Horse Racing Surfaces Not Working out so Well- Part II


By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter


Synthetic tracks have created a spike in injuries to horses' hind legs. Oh good. Thanks, synthetic tracks!



Pt. 1 of Synthetic Horse Racing Surfaces Not Working Out so Well









I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.

Monday, August 24, 2009

I Like to Think I Put the "Playa" In "Playa-giarism"

















By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter


T.R. Slyders scholars know that I'm a lover. I love primates, the Cubs, horse racing, and plagiarism. So why not combine all four? Since my pictures take care of the two former, I'll just plagiarize an article about horse to cover the latter two.

Of course I was trying to be funny but the article I'm plagiarizing is actually a very serious one. Daily Racing Form Publisher Steve Crist was asked months ago to make a speech the Jockeys Club about the state of drug usage in horse racing. On Steve's blog, which I have previously linked to, he did racing fans like me a great service and gave us a voice by asking us what we thought his speech should be about. Of course a man in Steve's position did not have to do that, but he modestly and wisely knows who butters the bread of horse racing and was kind enough to invite the everyday folk to opine. The link to Steve Crist's speech to the Jockey Club can be found here, as well as below in plagiarized format.


Jockey Club Roundtable
August 23, 2009

Thank you for inviting me to speak today, and for recognizing the often unheard voices of racing’s customers. My assignment for today was to report to you on how Thoroughbred racing’s medication issues are perceived by our fans. When I received this assignment back in June, I decided to make this an exercise in participatory journalism. It seemed that the best way to find out how our customers perceive medication issues might simply be to ask them. So I posed the same question put to me by the Jockey Club to the readers of my blog on drf.com. I did not ask them any specific questions or attempt to frame the debate. I simply told them I needed their help to write this speech and asked them how they perceived medication issues in Thoroughbred racing.

The response was astounding -- in its volume, in its tone and in its content. I’ll share a few thoughts on each. The sheer size of the response was unexpected and overwhelming. On a busy week, we might receive a dozen letters to the editor at the racing form. A typical blog entry might attract 25 responses. But on this topic, I knew we were seeing something profoundly different when I received 200 responses in the first three days. Our blogging software only accepts 100 comments per topic, so I actually had to repost my initial inquiry six times to accommodate what turned into 550 responses in less than a month.

As for tone, I can’t emphasize strongly enough that these were not the complaints of horseplayers who had just lost a photo. They were, for the most part, lengthy and thoughtful responses. There was more sadness than anger, more frustration than complaint. Dozens if not hundreds of responses began along the lines of, “I love racing, but...." And where they went from there surprised even me.

Comment after comment repeated the same themes:

*Drugs in racing are out of control; the inmates are running the asylum;

*There must be swifter, harsher justice, and more punitive penalties -- zero tolerance, three strikes and you’re out of the game.

*Punish the owners.

*Suspend the horses.

These are our fans’ perception of what racing needs to do about the abuse of medication in racing. And please keep in mind that while these may sound like the demands of an angry vigilante lynch mob, these are in fact the sentiments of some of your most loyal and most thoughtful customers.

I felt their pain at what they think has happened to their game, but I also felt that it was time for a reality check. And after the first 400 comments, one presented itself. On July 16, the Texas Racing Commission ordered a six-month suspension of the nation’s leading trainer because of a positive finding for a topical anesthetic in the winner of a maiden race a year earlier. Without belaboring the details of the case, this penalty was ordered despite the absence of any plausible veterinary scenario in which this drug had been administered, and of a finding so infinitesimally small that no one credibly could argue it had had any pharmacological effect on the horse’s performance.

I asked the respondents who had already posted comments, without agreeing or disagreeing with them, if what they really wanted was what they had been suggesting. Assuming the suspension – which is under appeal – were sustained: Did they really want the trainer to be thrown out of the game? Did they really want all of his horses removed from their stalls and turned over to outside trainers rather his assistants? Should all of the owners he trains for also to be sanctioned? Should the hundreds of horses who have run under his name this year barred from competition? Should Rachel Alexandra not be permitted to race again this year? As it turned out, no one really wanted to answer those ques tions. Only a few even tried. And after another week, the discussion simply petered out. Since then, I have been trying to digest and interpret the strange turn that this exercise took as it neared its end. And here is what I think.

Our fans are convinced, with good reason, that there is something rotten in the state of racing, but more than anything else they are completely confused about what is really going on – and so are almost all of us who work in the industry or represent it.

We make virtually no distinction between therapeutic medications that have a proper and even humane role in the treatment of these animals, and the abusive use of serious drugs. We make no distinction between marginal overages of medicine and the deliberate use of nefarious chemicals. And thus we have a seemingly constant barrage of news about failed drug tests and repeat offenders -- yet absolutely no one seems able to distinguish between minor administrative matters and serious crimes, between overzealous regulation and evidence of truly criminal activity.

Of course we have a problem with drugs in racing. We probably always have, and perhaps we always will. But we’re not going about rooting it out the right way. And in failing to do so, we’re both worsening the perception, and failing to address the reality, of the problem. It has been tempting in the past for racing to throw up its hands over this issue and act like a helpless victim. We’re good at saying that we don’t have the money, or the authority of a league office, to effect real change. Sometimes we get so disheartened that we start going down the cowardly and dangerous road of throwing up our hands and saying, “Let’s invite the Federal Government to take this whole thing over,” which strikes me as a prescription for disaster.

I personally don’t believe we need to go down that road. I think we can do a lot better on our own. And occasionally we do. The industrywide ban on anabolic steroids may have happened for all the wrong reasons – a coincidence of language involving a serious problem in baseball that may not have been that serious a problem in horse racing. But it was something that had to be done because there was simply no way, in a frenzied atmosphere about steroids and sports, that we could defend injecting horses with steroids if we ever wanted to create another new fan. But whatever the reasons, it worked. The industry decided it had to happen, and it did.It was done quickly and accepted quickly. Not one of my respondents even mentioned steroids as a problem. The steroid ban may have been cosmetic, but it can and should be a model for our getting equally serious about other abuses and other drugs.

I will leave you with a final thought: Despite doping scandals in baseball and cycling that may well be even more pervasive than our own, baseball stadiums are doing brisk business and Europeans still line the streets for the Tour de France. After spending years in denial, officials of both of those sports eventually came clean and said something simple and straightforward that racing’s leaders need to say:

We have a problem with medication, and we’re going to do something about it.

While it may be a tough road from there to reality, it’s past time for racing to make that simple statement – and I guarantee you that it would be a giant first step in changing the perceptions of our fans and bettors, without whom we will have no sport at all. Thank you for your time and your attention.

While Steve didn't drop the hammer, point fingers and spew venom, this speech was very important for horse racing. Much like how baseball was around 2003, no one in power really talked about it openly as a serious problem. So it was great that the Jockey Club wanted the issue to be addressed, and that they wanted it to be address by someone as powerful, intelligent and thoughtful as Steve Crist. It's a good start and has the right people behind it. A plagiarizing vigilante who rides alone in the night mysteriously but who the humble and helpless townsfolk have grown to know, trust and love, and hail as a modern day El Cid meets Zorro, but a man who is too mysterious and humble to accept their overwhelming adulation, a man these townsfolk know simply as "TR Slyder".








I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

After Watching the Alabama Stakes, maybe Zenyatta is now the #2 Contender to Rachel Alexandra.

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter

With Zenyatta's diminishing margins of victory, maybe she should have to go through Careless Jewel to earn her shot at Rachel Alexandra. Watch her victory in the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga today. Just sayin.





Looks like Zenyatta's "The ball is in my court- come and get me" stance might be over. Those on the East Coast sure hope you aren't just the female version of Lava Man (Lava Girl?). You aren't, are you? See ya in the Beldame.







I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.

Let's see if Zenyatta "Forfeits" This Race- my Prosaic Tryptich About Rachel Alexandra V. Zenyatta


By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter

Earlier in the month I sounded off about a tweet sent out by the author of the West Coast horse racing website Pick4AndWin. The Tweet alleged that if Rachel Alexandra did not run in the Breeder's Cup against Zenyatta that it should be considered a "forfeit" by Rachel. As my link attests, I disagreed with that viewpoint.

Now the tables have turned. Kind of. TVG and BetFair.com have agreed to add 400k to the Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park on Oct.3 if both Rachel and Zenyatta participate. With the added 400k, the purse now stands at a cool $1,000,000. This is of course, the inverse of what the Breeder's Cup is offering to Rachel. Rachel, a dirt horse, will not be running in the Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic (formerly known as the Distaff). because that race will be run over a synthetic surface on the other side of the country from where she's based. The cross-country trip isn't much of a deterrent for Rachel's connections, but the surface change certainly is.

The offer is on the table Zenyatta.

***************************************

Another Reason for Rachel to not Face Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic

While I wrote an allegorical article mentioning why Rachel has no obligation to race Zenyatta on a synthetic surface, I recently thought of another. What makes Zenyatta's connections think that Rachel Alexandra would even race in the Ladies Classic? Why not THE Classic? Afterall, Rachel Alexandra has the highest Beyer Speed Figure of the year, she beat the KY Derby winner (in the Preakness), she won the Preakness, and she beat the Belmont winner (in the Haskell). She also won two Grade 1 filly races by a combined 40 lengths. This year also has a relatively weak crop of older male foes to oppose Rachel in the Classic compared to recent years that featured Curlin, Saint Liam, Flower Alley, Bernardini, Invasor, and Ghostzapper. With the purse for the Classic a $5 mil., and the Ladies Classic at $2 mil, why would Rachel take a 60% pay cut to beat a horse that she is clearly superior to? I don't hear any AA baseball teams telling Albert Pujols that if he were a REAL baseball player he'd leave his contract with the Cardinals and try his hand for their farm team for 40 cents on the dollar- while playing on a new surface.

******************************

The East Coast Aint Got No Love for Zenyatta and Jon Shirreffs?

This analogy will probably alienate some of my zero readers, but I'm gonna write it anyway because I think the analogy stands up- there just aren't many people with gangster rap knowledge and horse racing knowledge that will be able to verify its accuracy.

In 1995 the East Coast versus West Coast rap feud started to heat up. It heated up at the Source Awards when Suge Knight took a very thinly veiled dig at Puff Daddy, and was later accelerated when Snoop Dogg (at the :42 mark) sounded off about the he East Coast aint got no love for Snoop Dogg





I saw an interview with Snoop a few years ago where he explained his diatribe. He said that as a West Coast rapper, he always held the East Coast rappers in reverential esteem- rap was invented on the East coast, and they dominated the rap scene for years until NWA came onto the scene on the West Coast. Snoop said that as a burgeoning rapper in a relatively newer rap market, he strove to impress the rap pioneers and their successors- any time an East Coast rapper came out west, they were always shown plenty of respect and appreciation for coming out, but the inverse was not true. When Snoop and others went out East, they were not afforded the same respect and were treated with relative derision. This lack of respect hurt Snoop's feelings and fueled his animosity, manifesting itself in the rant seen above. In short, Snoop felt that those on the East Coast were provincial snobs who looked down their noses at what they considered perversions of a form of entertainment they're credited with inventing.

Sound familiar? I think a lot of that is reflected in the Rachel Alexandra v. Zenyatta debate. West Coasters may feel slighted that Zenyatta isn't as gushed-over as Rachel despite an undefeated record. Fans of east coast (not capitalized since it's not part a rap feud) horse racing take great pleasure in deriding not only the "plastic" running surfaces in California, but also the small fields in so many of their races.

While the coastal feud is nothing new to horse racing, the "racing surface feud" is. I think many Zenyatta supporters (i.e. west coast horse racing fans) feel that Rachel is turning up her nose at an inferior horse, over an inferiors surface, in an inferior race (Ladies Classic v. The Classic) on an inferior coast. It isn't that Rachel's connections don't want her to run on a surface alien unto her, it's that she's being a snob. This provincial upstart has taken away the nation's collective thunder for Zenyatta, who west coasters feel is the superior race horse. Westerners may feel that the snobby old cigar-chomping, pocket-watch-toting east coast guard can't be bothered by Zenyatta- an ok horse but one that runs on a phony surface that wasn't the one THEY invented horses to race upon.

Am I a secretly hoping for the 2009 Eclipse Awards to turn into the 1995 Source Awards? No. I'm publicly hoping they do:


Rachel's connections: If you don't want your horses to be races all on a plastic surface, all in 4-horse fields, and all in front of a martini-drinking crowd that can't read a Racing Form- come to Saratoga and Belmont!

Zenyatta's connections rebuttle (while wearing the colors of Zenyatta's owner on a scarf around their necks): Y'all aint got no love for Zenyatta and Jon Shirreffs??!!! *expletive* *expletive* *expletive*






I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Gio Ponti May Run in the Classic: More Evidence that a Breeder's Cup on Synthetic is Bad for Racing

By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter

As many know, a synthetic main track (i.e. the fake dirt track) runs more like a grass surface than a dirt surface. So? So, now Gio Ponti may run in the Breeder's Cup Classic, as Bloodhorse's Jason Shandler reported.

Would this turf savant try the dirt on an actual dirty surface? While it is possible, and similar things have happened in Breeder's Cups past, a synthetic surface certainly makes the switch more attractive to a turf horse. So not only will the Breeder's Cup Classic now be a crapshoot for dirt-only horses trying synthetic for the first time, but the Breeder's Cup Turf may now be cheapened in addition to the Classic being crapshoot-ified.

Thank you again, for awarding this to Santa Anita, Breeder's Cup.








I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

My Socratic Homage Regarding the Breeder's Cup


By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com, AndyDisco on Twitter


As many of you know, much of Plato's philosophy was written in the form of dialogue. In fact, a lot of Philisophy is written in that manor, Socrates himself never wrote anything, all we know of his philosophy is what Plato recorded in his dialogues. With that background, allow me to analogize the Breeders Cup Zenyatta/Rachel debate.

Breeder's Cup Tweeter: Rachel Alexandra's avoidance of the Breeder's Cup is clearly a sign that her handlers admit that she would be defeated by Zenyatta, and is therefor the inferior race horse.

TR Slyder: I see. And why are you convinced of this?

BCT: Well, the challege has been issued. One party has accepted and the other one has backed away. Surely that is a concession of inferiority.

TRS: I see what you mean.

BCT: Indeed, I can see of no other explanation for her avoiding such a challenge if not for fear of humiliation in defeat.

TRS: Surely. And a wise man you are. Afterall, you Tweet on behalf of the Breeder's Cup. I assume that you are confident that, in a debate between you and me about Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra, you would emerge victorious.

BCT: I am confident of that, T.R., yes.

TRS: Being that your confidence is so high, I'd imagine that you feel you could defeat me in that debate regardless of circumstance- be it on an airplane, or at breakfast, or outside, or inside or on a paddle boat, standing up, sitting down, etc.

BCT: That is correct- very confident.

TRS: And being that your case for your horse is so strong, and your debate skills are so adept, surely you would have no fear or apprehension in debating me, would you?

BCT: That is absolutely correct.

TRS: Outstanding, my good friend. Well here is the thing, being that I had a late night out last night, I was groggy this morning, as can happen after late night bar crawls. When I awoke this afternoon all I had for breakfast was leftover chili, which I ate ravenously before having 3 espressos to counteract my grogginess from from my late night. If you'll excuse me, I need to use the restroom rather urgently.

BCT: That is rather disgusting, T.R.. But I won't stand in the way of your personal biological necessities. This discussion may continue when you are finished.

TRS: Well, Breeder's Cup Tweeter, it is funny that you mention that. I think that I am ready to have this Rachel Alexandra v. Zenyatta debate once and for all.

BCT: Oh you are? Surely, you know it's a debate you cannot win.

TRS: A worthy advesary you are indeed. I am nearly ready for the debate now in fact, however I must use the restroom this instant. Please meet in there in exactly 75 seconds and we can then begin our debate over which is the better race horse.

BCT: Um, TR... I really rather would not. That sounds a rather crude venue for any competition. Debating was not intended to be carried out in a restroom, afterall.

TRS: What do you mean?

BCT: Well, I hardly think that is a reasonable forum to settle any kind of competition. In fact, didn't you offer to debate me there last year in October?

TRS: But you claimed your arguments were far superior to mine, and you had no fear of debating me. Yet you now express fear.

BCT: Well, I think this is different. This isn't what I had in mind.

TRS: Earlier you stated that such concession necessarily states that your point inferior, yet you profess to have the better argument. This perplexes me, Breeder's Cup Tweeter. How can both be true? Surely as a sagacious man, you can resolve this incongruity.

BCT: Well it isn't that my argument is any less cogent in your restroom, it's that I find the venue unsuitable to my liking, and given the circumstances of location and what would be going on in that venue during our debate, I find it to be more suitable to you as a debater than to me. A more fair debate can be carried out in a venue that disadvantages no one, then and only then can this argument be resolved. Being that this debate is so important to us both, you should not be allowed to pick a venue that favors you, yet repulses me and any debating purist. The suggestion of that venue is disgusting to anyone who respects debating. And you have suggested it two years in a row now, T.R.!

TRS: Ah, yes. All that have you just said is indeed correct and we agree most happily. Now you know what Rachel Alexandra thinks of Santa Anita's Synthetic surface, my dear friend.




See also: The Breeder's Cup Tweet that inspired this post

Cheering for Laundry with Socrates and Ron Santo






I'm T.R. Slyder, and that's how you Tangueray.