By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
I'll just lay my cards right on the table. I made a Derby futures Exacta bet, and I can't help but see the race through that lens. Here's what I have.
18 Exactas with Quality Road on top, and 2 exactas with him on the bottom. Here are my bets with their will-pays. (all exactas have Quality Road on top, so I'll just list the place horse and the dollar amount it will pay for a $2 bet)
1. Charitable Man- $814
2. Chocolate Candy- 287
3. Desert Party- 233
4. Dunkirk- 104
5. Friesan Fire- 71
6. Hold Me Back- 554
7. I Want Revenge- 51
8. Mafaaz 937
9. Musket Man- 380
10. Old Fashioned- 162
11. Papa Clem- 1,016
12. Pioneer of the Nile- 107
13. Regal Ransom- 438
14. Terrain- 1,034
15. (ThePamplemousse- 231) will not be in Derby (that was not the case when I bet him)
16. (Theregoesjojo- 438)- unlikely to be in the Derby
17. Win Willy- 203
18. Any other horse not listed- 203.
finally, two other exactas with Quality Road on the bottom
1. Friesan Fire/Quality Road- $84
2. Hold Me Back/Quality Road- $739
let the record show that I made a mistake when betting the Hold Me Back/Quality Road exacta. I meant to bet I Want Revenge on top and just told the woman at the ticket window the wrong number. So I guess we'll see how that pans out.
Anyway, now that that's out of the way. I was happy to see how the Arkansas Derby panned out: Papa Clem won. I need him to 1) be in the Derby, and, 2) Be running well so he can come in seocond. He is my second-highest payout, so that's great news to me.
I didn't feel that anyone in the Arkansas Derby was a real Derby contender. As mentioned in an earlier posting, I feel that race was just a cash-grab for horses who weren't yet eligible for the Derby, but hoped to beat some low-quality horses quickly and then be deby-eligible as a result.
The odds-on favorite of the Arkansas Derby, Old Fashioned, didn't muster a win, but he did muster a shitting of the bed. I'm not even sure his connections will enter him in the Derby (he is eligible) after his putrid performances hin his last two races. It's tough to argue that he is not a sprinter at this point. Talented horse, not a lover of the Derby distance.
Oh, after writing that paragraph I checked on the DRF.com, and saw that Old Fashioned is out due to an injury. He won't be in the Derby for sure. I wish that horse all the best.
As for the other major Derby Prep, The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland: General Quarters won the race. I'd never heard of him either. He beat the favored Hold Me Back (who I accidentally had on top in one of my exactas) by a length and a half and is now Derby bound, possibly displacing the very exciting Dunkirk. What a dick.
The Blue Grass also featured a few other Derby implications, but I don't really care about talking about them. One reason is because it's overkill and I know that none of my zero readers like horse racing. The other is that this race was run on a Synthetic surface, so none of it necessarily matters anyway. It skews the definition of "Derby Implications".
Saturday, April 11, 2009
My $.03 Regarding the Derby Preps.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
KY is for Horses, and I'm Gonna Talk About That
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
My man Steve Haskins has spoken and I listened. My Derby horse, Quality Road is healing nicely from his potentially-harmful cracked hoof. Thank God and Baby Jesus. I didn't want my Derby horse to sit out the Derby or go in gimpy. The slight was crack looks increasingly non-threatening and we are nearly out of the woods with the injury.
I borrowed this from the link above:
Quality Road Quarter Crack Not Serious
Posted: Monday, April 6, 2009 2:44 PM
Foot specialist Ian McKinlay, who was in the news last year dealing with Big Brown ’s quarter crack prior to the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), is back on the Triple Crown trail once again, treating a lesser quarter crack suffered by
McKinlay said he’s optimistic
“He got patched down in
“I figured his foot would be ice cold today, but it was a little warmer than I thought. We had planned on patching him on Wednesday, but we’re going to be cautious, that’s all, and wait until the end of the week. They’ll just draw on it again with the Animalintex. This isn’t anything huge, that’s for sure. It’s just that I was looking for a simple one, but they never seem to be when you’re dealing with good horses. This one is basically pretty easy, but I was hoping it would be really easy.”
McKinlay said
“Big Brown had a pretty large abscess blow at the top, but with this one there’s no soreness at all up at the hairline,” he said. “It’s just a little pocket. Believe me, if his foot was cold today we’d be patching him on Wednesday. There’s just a little bit of heat that I don’t like. It could him moving around or just a little lingering infection, which the Animalintex should pull out along with any soreness.”
That is good news for the TR Slyder camp, as I have $20 worth of Derby Futures Exactas with Quality Road in them.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Talk Derby to me: Steve Haskins' top 10
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.comBob Ross Steve Haskins is at it again. He ranks his top ten horses in an article published today. He has my boy Quality Road as third, which is understandable. For the neophytes, the first name (using #1 I Want Revenge as an example) is the horse's name, followed by his trainer- Jeff Mullins in this case. The next names probably won't mean much to you, but would to a big horse racing afficionado, it's the name of his sire (or dad), followed by his dam (i.e. mom), in this case it's Stephen Got Even and Meguial, respectively. The last horse listed, Roy here, is the horses' maternal grandfather.
Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen
Updated: April 7th
1.I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins; Stephen Got Even—Meguial, by Roy
Is there anything this horse can't do? His remarkable victory in the Wood had Aqueduct abuzz and stamped him as something special. His five-eighths come-home time in :59 4/5 and last eighth in :12 flat into a strong headwind was sensational, especially considering all the trouble he had and having to stop his run and alter course.
TR says: True enough But like I've always said- it's easier to beat horses that totally suck.
2. Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert; Empire Maker—Star of Goshen, by Lord At War
This winning machine just goes out there race after race and gets the job done even with having to run counterproductive to his best running style. He can adapt to any pace scenario and is so smooth and light on his feet he's a joy to watch. It would be a surprise if he didn't handle the dirt just as well or better, but he still has to go out and do it.
TR Says: I can't endorse this horse at the #2. He's talented, but he's only Haskins' #2 based on the assumption that he handles dirt very, very well (i.e. as well as he does synthetic). I'd rather base my second pic on a past record, than future optimism. We just don't know how he'll handle it. Great horses don't love every surface. Curlin lost on the grass last year. It can happen.
3. Quality Road Jimmy Jerkens; Elusive Quality—Kobla, by Strawberry Road
He makes up the Big 3 who for now will vie for favoritism in the Derby. He no doubt has the potential to be a superstar. Physically, he is an imposing specimen. The only thing separating him from the top two is that he's demonstrated only one running style, which is to be on or near the lead, but boy is he fast. He's dealing with a quarter crack issue that in itself shouldn't hamper him, but if it causes him to miss a work then he may have a problem.
TR Says: Can't fault Steve here. I still like this guy to win the Derby, but I can understand the logic behind others being more favored. I don't mind his early on-the-pace style, as very few Derby winners come from more than 4 lengths back from the leader at any time in the race. However, I'm not thrilled about the crack in his hoof.
4. Dunkirk Todd Pletcher; Unbridled’s Song—Secret Status, by A.P. Indy
Saturday was a big day for him, as the three stakes winners and two of the runners-up were already ahead of him on the earnings list. This keeps him at either No. 17 or 18. He needs similar results next week. The feeling here is that he'll get in and will be extremely dangerous. I'm still not crazy about the three starts, but he is so gifted he just may be able to overcome that, just as Big Brown did last year. Come to think of it, make that the Big 4.
5. Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer; Candy Ride—Crownette, by Seattle Slew
This is my Derby dark horse. I listed all the things he has going for him in various columns and how well the Santa Anita Derby shaped for him. It was a perfect prep, and with that race under him he should now be ready to peak on Derby Day. This definitely is a horse to watch.
TR Says: I haven't seen much of this horse. But when Steve says stuff like this, you should listen. It's not unlike when in the song Fatty Girl Ludacris says, "N*&ga, shut yo' ass up when you hear a pimp talk."
6.Friesan Fire Larry Jones, A.P. Indy—Bollinger, by Dehere
We know he's extremely talented, but he'll have to be an exceptional horse to win the Derby off a seven-week layoff and never having run farther than 1 1/16 miles. If he pulls it off, you can officially toss the history books.
TR Says: I haven't seen anyone rank this guy lower than third or fourth. Gutsy call by Steve, but he makes a very good point that no one else has made regarding his distance. A lot of columnists were awed by his talent and overlooked that.
7.Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor, Street Cry—Sage Cat, by Tabasco Cat
I still have to stick with him. There are major questions about him returning home after some four months in Dubai, but there are enough positives to take out of his UAE Derby defeat to suggest he could be a legitimate contender. He needs to get back here and start training at Churchill Downs. He'll also need a new jockey.
8.Old Fashioned Larry Jones, Unbridled’s Song—Collect Call, by Meadowlake
There is going to be plenty of pace pressure in the Arkansas Derby and he has to settle and relax off the pace and kick in down the stretch. He can certainly be excused for his last race, and he should be much tougher this time. With the Rebel under him, he is capable of anything on Saturday. He's tight and fit and there shouldn't be any excuses.
Did you notice that he's Dunkirk's half-brother? He was the Derby favorite a month or so ago, then got beaten by a longshot (who is the #9 horse on this list), and others have surpassed him for favoritism. He still has the same amount of talent, just threw in a clunker in his last race.
9.Win Willy McLean Robertson, Monarchos—City Fair, by Carson City
Right now, this is my longshot special. Unless the Rebel was a fluke, he is going to be a major factor in the Arkansas Derby, and it would come as no surprise if he runs another bang-up race. There's a lot to like about this colt, and if he does duplicate his effort in the Rebel, people better start taking him seriously.
You might be interested to know that his dad won the KY Derby in (I think) 2001. I was at that Derby. The most memorable part of that day for me was when I purchased my first pair of molester sunglasses in a KY gas station on the way to Churchill Downs. That really started it all for me.
10.Hold Me Back Bill Mott, Giant’s Causeway—Restraint, by Unbridled’s Song
If I had a No. 2 longshot special it would be him, despite his one bad race on dirt. He just was so visually impressive in the Lane's end Stakes the feeling here is that he's grown up physically and is a much better horse now. We won't know for sure about him regardless of what he does in the Blue Grass, but the unknown factor will keep his odds pretty high in the Derby.
He is technically, the uncle of Dunkirk. Although, I think Dunkirk must have over 100 uncles at this point, some of which are younger than him.
11.Musket Man Derek Ryan; Yonaguska--Fortuesque, by Fortunate Prospect
He's improving with every race, has won at four different tracks, and has now turned in back-to-back big efforts in graded stakes, both over surfaces that can get a little quirky. He's already defied his pedigree by winning impressively going 1 1/8 miles. He hasn't met horses of this quality, but anyone would love to have him in their barn.
12.West Side Bernie Kelly Breen, Bernstein—Time Honored, by Gilded Time
He bounced back off his Lane's End debacle with a big second in the Wood Memorial against the Derby Future Wager favorite. A mile and a quarter against these horses is still a tall order, but he has the right running style and he's earned his chance to try.
Steve Haskins, ladies and gentleman. He'll be here up until the Derby. Don't forget to tip your waitress.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
I Wanted It, You Got It. More Talkin' Derby
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
This weekend featured one and a half meaninful Derby prep races- the Santa Anita Derby, and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The Santa Anita Derby was the more ballyhooed of the two races because it pitted formidable foes against one another- ThePamplemousse and Pioneer of the Nile. Unfortunately for race fans, ThePamplemousse scratched before the race and is now off the Derby Trail, and is going to rest for 6 months. So that took a lot of the luster off the Santa Anita Derby, which was later won handily by Pioneer of the Nile, who is shaping up to be a major Derby contender, despite never having raced on dirt. The KY Derby is run on dirt, and Santa Anita runs over a synthetic surface. Most horses prefer one to the other and there is no way of predicting how any horse will take to a new surface.
One horse that ran fairly well on synthetic then ran freakishly on dirt was I Want Revenge, who won the Wood Memorial on Saturday. He ran so well in his last two starts (his only on dirt), that he is now considered to be the Derby favorite. Below is the video of his race in the Wood on Saturday. Getting off to a flat-footed start (it looked like the worse just wasn't paying attention or something), he appeared to have no shot to win it. After fighting on gamely, he found himself behind a wall of horses on the home stretch and managed to swing outside and still have energy left to pass the remaining horses. It's a very impressive race, visually.
Given that the Derby has 20 horses in it, the track is always crowded and adversity is the only certainty. So when a horse has a race like this, showing that he is able to overcome adversity and traffic problems, it bodes very well for his Derby chances.
While I think it was an awesome race for a very sound horse, I am not rushing to the betting window for I Want Revenge just yet. Formidable though he is, I haven't seen him beat any top-tier horses on Synthetic or Dirt. Had he raced against Quality Road or Friesan Fire in the Wood, I think we'd be talking about an impressive last-to-second place finish for I Want Revenge.
The other race I mentioned was the ThePamplemousse-less Santa Anita Derby. That is four wins in a row for Pioneer of the Nile, two of them were over I Want Revenge, albeit over synthetic and in December and February. If Pioneer of the Nile puts in a solid workout at Churchill Downs the week of the Derby, he will be a major, major contender.
The knock on him is that, although he wins, he doesn't do so in eye-popping time. Below is his victory in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.
That win looked a lot like all of his others- nothing fancy. You don't drop your jaw and look at the person standing next to you. Just a very workmanlike win. Every time it looked like a foe was gaining on him he just kicked them away and sped off. Much like Milton Berle, he pulls out just enough to win.
As legitimate of a contender as Pioneer of the Nile is, I just can't feel confident in betting on him until I know how he'll react to the dirt. Last year was Santa Anita's first year using the synthetic surface, so most of the west coast horses coming to the Derby were racing on dirt for the first time, and no one knew how their synthetic races would translate to dirt. Well, they didn't translate very well. It could just be that the dirt horses were better horses than the west coast, synthetic-raced horses, but it wasn't pretty. I lost money betting on synthetic-specialist Colonel John, and vowed to never bet on a Derby horse that had never raced on dirt. Winning the Derby requires an outstanding horse, and getting a few breaks during the race- everything has to go right. Racing a horse over a new surface diminishes the odds of everything going right, in my opinion.
So after this weekend's racing, the Derby stage is pretty well set. Next week there are two prep races, but they are more glorified prep races.What they really are is a last-second cash-grab for horses who don't yet have the requisite earnings to enter the Derby. Racing next weekend will give a horse only three weeks of rest before the Derby. For most horses, having only three weeks to lead up to a race is too short of an interval to produce their highest quality racing. So the top tier horses already won their prep races and have earned some time off, the horses running next weekend probably lost to the aforementioned horses and need to scare up some cash in order to be eligible.
Friday, April 3, 2009
You are in Luck- I'm Talking About Horse Racing Again
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
One of the best parts about the weeks leading up to the KY Derby is reading what Steve Haskins has to say about it. He is back in the habit again, I am glad to say. All you really need to know about him is that he's like the Bob Ross of horse racing. As knowledgeable as he is gentle.
Another thing I admire about Steve is that while most horse racing writers tend to grow bald as they age, Steve still has a thick, full head of hair. As you can plainly tell from the picture, you can see continuous strands of hair from one side of his head to the other, therefore, it is impossible that he is bald, otherwise you'd just see bare head.
KY Derby Earnings
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
I robbed this from thebloodhorse.com. I highlighted (highlit?) Dunkirk at #20 for two reasons. One is that the 20th spot is the cutoff for Derby eligibility (inclusive), and 2) to illustrate where Dunkirk was- since every racing fan wants him in the Derby. Since the odds for Dunkirk remaining in the 20 slot for another 3 weeks are terrible, Dunkirk enthusiasts will have to hope that there are a lot of Derby defections- horses being eligible but opting not to run in the Derby, thereby allowing the horse with the 21st most winnings to enter, etc.
By my un-scientific calculations, there are 7 horses racing this weekend that are behind Dunkirk in earnings. I have italicized their names. I hope none of them earny any money this weekend.
| Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings for Major Contenders (through 03/31/09) | |||
| Rank | Horse | Trainer | Graded Earnings |
| 1 | Regal Ransom | bin Suroor, Saeed | $1,250,000 |
| 2 | Square Eddie | O'Neill, Doug | $774,981 |
| 3 | Pioneerof the Nile | Baffert, Bob | $743,250 |
| 4 | Desert Party | bin Suroor, Saeed | $641,667 |
| 5 | Quality Road | Jerkens, James | $600,000 |
| 6 | Friesan Fire | Jones, J. Larry | $570,465 |
| 7 | Terrain | Stall, Albert | $410,830 |
| 8 | Old Fashioned | Jones, J. Larry | $330,000 |
| 9 | I Want Revenge | Mullins, Jeff | $324,000 |
| 10 | Hold Me Back | Mott, Bill | $288,000 |
| 11 | West Side Bernie | Breen, Kelly | $235,160 |
| 12 | Chocolate Candy | Hollendorfer, Jerry | $220,000 |
| 13 | Bittel Road | Pletcher, Todd | $211,000 |
| 14 | Musket Man | Ryan, Derek | $200,000 |
| 15 | Crowded House (GB) | Meehan, Brian | $195,020 |
| 16 | The Pamplemousse | Canani, Julio | $180,000 |
| 17 | Win Willy | Robertson, McLean | $180,000 |
| 18 | Papa Clem | Stute, Gary | $160,000 |
| 19 | Charitable Man | McGlaughlin, Kiaran | $150,000 |
| 20 | Dunkirk | Pletcher, Todd | $150,000 |
| 21 | Mine That Bird | Woolley, Bennie | $138,705 |
| 22 | Theregoesjojo | McPeek, Ken | $133,063 |
| 23 | General Quarters | McCarthy, Tom | $130,645 |
| 24 | Munnings | Pletcher, Todd | $105,000 |
| 25 | Flying Private | Lukas, D. Wayne | $94,000 |
| 26 | Cribnote | Violette, Rick | $90,000 |
| 27 | Flying Pegasus | Nicks, Ralph | $90,000 |
| 28 | Join in the Dance | Pletcher, Todd | $67,500 |
| 29 | Imperial Council | McGaughey, Shug | $50,000 |
| 30 | Procede Bee | Gestes, Terry | $47,000 |
| 31 | Atomic Rain | Breen, Kelly | $40,000 |
| 32 | Take the Points | Pletcher, Todd | $40,000 |
| 33 | Feisty Suances | Vienna, Darrell | $40,000 |
| 34 | Bear's Rocket | Baker, Reade | $36,000 |
| 35 | Poltergeist | VonHemel, Donnie K. | $30,000 |
| 36 | Lime Rickey | Alexander, Frank | $30,000 |
| 37 | Uno Mas | Asmussen, Steve | $28,000 |
| 38 | Gone Astray | McGaughey, Shug | $27,500 |
| 39 | Nowhere to Hide | Zito, Nick | $27,000 |
| 40 | Rendezvous | Hollendorfer, Jerry | $24,000 |
| 41 | Jeranimo | Pender, Michael | $24,000 |
| 42 | Parade Clown | Ball, Katherine | $23,500 |
| 43 | Patena | Dutrow, Rick | $20,000 |
| 44 | Soul Warrior | Asmussen, Steve | $18,000 |
| 45 | Ventana | Baffert, Bob | $16,600 |
| 46 | Captain Cherokee | Asmussen, Steve | $15,000 |
| 47 | Brave Victory | Zito, Nick | $14,833 |
| 48 | Al Khali | Pletcher, Todd | $0 |
| 49 | Mayor Marv | Baffert, Bob | $0 |
| 50 | Omniscient | Asmussen, Steve | $0 |
Friday, March 27, 2009
Big Derby Prep Race to be on ESPN This Saturday
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
The Florida Derby, the best Derby Prep race to date will be on ESPN from 5-6 ET on Saturday, 3/28. Now we're getting into the mid-to-late stages of Derby prep races, which means that good horses will start running against one another instead of avoiding eachother. It's kind of like the middle rounds of the NCAA tournament- where #1 seeds play #4 seeds, and you have a matchup that's actually good, instead of seeing one good team humiliate an inferior team.
Saturday's Florida Derby features three horses to get excited about: Dunkirk (pictured above), Quality Road, and Theregoesjojo.
Dunkirk
Abovemost is his first race, below that is his second race. He is by far the most intriguing of the group. In 2007 he was the most expensive yearling (i.e. one year old) purchased at auction for the entire year- at $3.7 million. He didn't race at all as a 2-year old (only two Derby winners were unraced at 2) and is 2-for-2 in his starts this year. He was the favorite in both races in which he ran, and won impressively in both, as you'll see. So the story on him is that he has all the potential in the world but has yet to beat any competitive horses. Most directly in his way is....
Quality Road
Above is his latest, and by far most impressive race. Regardless of how you think it compares visually to Dunkirk's impressive wins, it should be known that Quality Road beat a litany of very qualified horses in that race. He went off at 6-1, and that was his third race. It looked like he got a great ride from his very talented jockey and then had the talent to ride to the wire in the lead. The only knock on him is that he may have ran so quickly and been so finely-tuned for that race, that he may not have as much stank in the tank for this Saturday's race. That could be the case, or it could be that that was the first race of a super horse. What that a trend or an aberration? Will he be a one hit wonder? The next horse in this race worth taking a closer look at is the horse that finished right behind him that race.....
Theregoesjojo
The race you saw Quality Road win was the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February, 28th. However, what you didn't hear was that just one month prior to that race, in an allowance race on January 10th, Theregoesjojo beat Quality road by nearly three lengths. (Quality Road beat Theregoesjojo by 4 lengths in the Fountain of Youth). So the question here then is- who will win the rubber match? Is Theregoesjojo the better horse, and just got off to a slow start in the Fountain of Youth? Or did he get lucky on 1/10? Even if he is better than Quality Road, can he hold off the regally bred Dunkirk?
*Queue the music* Dun Dun DDuunnnnnn. We'll have to tune in Saturday to find out.
My prediction is that Dunkirk will win because his second race was ran at a mile and an 8th, which is what the distance will be on Saturday. Quality Road's win took place at only a mile. The difference may sound negligble for horses, but it actually does matter quite a bit. Quality Road's win was very impressive to be sure, but Dunkirk looks like he can be driven like a car and it didn't look as though he even tried to win either race, despite having horrible trips (being 6 wide during turns in each race). It's also wishful thinking because I want Dunkirk to win because he'll be undefeated and will maybe draw some media attention that only undefeated horses can (like Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown). I want him to be an unbeatable freak superhorse. But realistically, I would not be surprised at all if either of the other two horses soundly defeated him.
Thickening the plot (or, boring you even further) is that this will be Dunkirk's last race before the Kentucky Derby. Which may not sound like a big deal, but it actually is. Only the top 20 Graded Stakes (i.e. very good races) earning horses are eligible to be in the Derby. Graded Stakes just means "top tier" races. Quality Road beat Theregoesjojo in a "Graded Stake" race, so they both earned a good deal of money toward their total. Dunkirk however, has yet to race in one. If he wins Saturday's Florida Derby, he will have enough to safely remain in the top 20 and be Derby eligible. If he finishes in second place though, it's less likely he'll be Derby eligible, and if he finishes third, he has no chance. He is allowed to enter races between Saturday and the Derby in order to get his total earnings up, but his owner and trainer don't want to do that because they don't want to over-race such a valuable horse. So if Dunkirk does not win on Saturday, he probably won't be in the Kentucky Derby, and would then probably race next in the Preakness or the Belmont.
Either way, I am very excited to watch the race and I hope you are too.
UPDATE: Good race. Quality Road won an impressive stretch run with Dunkirk. Quality Road looked him the eye and then ran by him. As they turned for home Dunkirk took the lead from Quality Road for a bit, and then Quality Road quickly regained it. It's very rare to see a horse re-take a lead from a horse that just passed it.
Mr. Fantasy out of Wood
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
That was a headline on the Daily Racing Form today- "Mr. Fantasy is out of Wood". It means that the horse named Mr. Fantasy is no longer going to run in the Wood Memorial on April 4th, a key prep race for the Kentucky Derby. Since this greatly derails his chances of making it into the Kentucky Derby field, maybe the could have added, "-Don't Expect to see him Near KY Anytime Soon." to the headline.
Monday, March 2, 2009
This Year's Kentucky Derby Trail
By: T.R. Slyder, TRSlyder@yahoo.com
After watching Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream and Santa Anita's Sham Stakes, I feel pretty good about the 2009 Kentucky Derby field.
I haven't seen every Derby hopeful yet this year, but the 5 or 6 I've followed have impressed me moreso than the top 5 or 6 in recent years.
As a starting point for the discussion of the top 3-year olds can be found on the left margin here- Mike Watchmaker's "Watchmaker Watch". The top two horses, Old Fashioned and Dunkirk, I have not seen, but if they're atop the list, I have ever reason to believe they're flat out beasts. The third horse, Pioneer of the Nile, I watched a few weeks ago in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, below. Check it out for yourself. That's an impressive ride from a jockey who knew exactly how much horse he had left, and didn't ask his horse to do any more than he had to. You get the feeling that if the jockey wanted to send Pioneer of the Nile much earlier, he could have won by 6 lengths.
Next on Watchmaker's list is the winner of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, Midshipman. He is off the Derby trail due to a recent injury. I hope to see him in the Travers in August at Saratoga, as I don't think we've heard the last of him yet. Friesan Fire is ranked 5th on the Watchmaker Watch and I have not seen him either. In 6th is Vineyard Haven who had a very impressive two-year old campaign on the East Coast. He ran a clunker in Dubai recently, but his work as a 2-year old still looms. Here's his impressive win in the 2008 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.
Coming in 7th place in Watchmaker's Watch is the horse that inspired me to write this article, who is pictured at the top of this article, and who won me $70 on Saturday- The Pamplemousse.
It is worth noting that he was heavily, favored in this race, however he didn't even show an inkling of concern for the others in the race (like Pioneer of the Nile did, for instance). It looks like the jockey said "Ok other horses, my horse is better and will run his race and let you guys run yours. And "yours" is gonna have a view of The Pamplemousse's hiney the entire time. You really aren't any concern to us. Good luck out there." The visual evidence is below.
The last three ranked horses on the Watch (Capt. Candyman Can, Notonthesamepage, and This Ones For Phil) all raced in Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream. The field in this race was very deep, and I found other horses in the race very likable as well (Theregoesjojo, and Beethoven, most notably). The winner of that race? A horse named Quality Road. So of the 5 horses I liked a little bit in that race, none of them won. Quality Road won impressively and is still on the Derby Trail, as well as Theregoesjojo and Beethoven. The three horses from Watchmaker's Watch that entered this race, appeared to be the horse racing equivalent of a one-hit wonder, as often happens with young horses hoping to enter in the KY Derby. Here's the Fountain of Youth from Gulfstream.
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